Apr 24, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 24 16:21:22 UTC 2016 (20160424 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160424 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160424 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 18,980 1,497,102 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...Salina, KS...
SLIGHT 85,799 3,309,064 Wichita, KS...Sioux Falls, SD...Topeka, KS...Lawrence, KS...Sioux City, IA...
MARGINAL 153,494 11,205,570 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Minneapolis, MN...Corpus Christi, TX...St. Paul, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160424 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 43,194 2,664,125 Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Council Bluffs, IA...
2 % 61,001 2,440,773 Corpus Christi, TX...Sioux Falls, SD...Lawrence, KS...Sioux City, IA...St. Joseph, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160424 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 94,722 4,623,063 Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Topeka, KS...
5 % 147,096 10,680,405 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Minneapolis, MN...Corpus Christi, TX...St. Paul, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160424 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 39,382 2,410,437 Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
30 % 18,692 1,490,742 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...Salina, KS...
15 % 85,298 3,211,730 Wichita, KS...Sioux Falls, SD...Topeka, KS...Lawrence, KS...Sioux City, IA...
5 % 136,465 11,086,346 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Minneapolis, MN...Corpus Christi, TX...St. Paul, MN...
   SPC AC 241621

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB AND KS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA
   FROM NW OK NNE INTO ERN SD...WRN IA...AND SW MN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OK NNE INTO THE UPR MS
   VLY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED FROM
   THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN KANSAS INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...WITH A RISK FOR LARGE
   HAIL...OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE TORNADOS. ONE
   OR TWO SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   MULTI-STREAM FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48...DOWNSTREAM FROM
   DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE E PAC...AND S OF ELONGATED VORTEX OVER SE
   CANADA. UPR LOW NOW S OF THE BLACK HILLS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
   CONTINUES E ALONG THE SD-NEB BORDER TODAY...AND ENE INTO ERN SD/SW
   MN EARLY MON. TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW SHOULD ADVANCE ENE
   INTO CNTRL KS BY THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING NE INTO CNTRL IA BY 12Z
   MON. ELSEWHERE...SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE
   EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES E ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
   TNGT/EARLY MON.

   SD SFC LOW WILL TRACK E IN TANDEM WITH UPR LOW THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...REACHING SE SD THIS EVE AND S CNTRL MN EARLY MON. DRY
   LINE/LEE TROUGH ARCING SSW FROM THE LOW SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED
   OVER THE CNTRL PLNS TODAY...AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. THE FEATURE WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY
   ESE-ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN NEB AND KS...AND RETREAT NWWD ACROSS OK
   AND TX TNGT/EARLY MON. WARM/STNRY FRONT EXTENDING ESE FROM THE SD
   LOW WILL PROVIDE NERN LIMIT TO SFC-BASED SVR TSTM THREAT.

   ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 F
   SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY MID AFTN AHEAD OF SHARPENING DRY
   LINE/LEE TROUGH FROM ERN NEB WRN IA SSW INTO E CNTRL KS AND
   WRN/CNTRL OK AS 35-40 KT SSW LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS REGION.
   COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES/ASCENT
   WITH PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH...EXPECT A BAND OF SCTD TO BKN TSTMS
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE/SFC TROUGH AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO
   1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN FAIRLY DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...COOL
   MID-LVL TEMPERATURES /AOB MINUS 14C AT 500 MB/...AND 50+ SW TO SSW
   MID-LVL FLOW...SETUP WILL YIELD SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND...IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO OR TWO.
   MULTICELL STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR MAINLY HAIL SHOULD
   DEVELOP NWD INTO ERN SD/WRN MN.

   WHILE CONVECTION MAY BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN NEB...THE POTENTIAL FOR
   DISCRETE OR LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GREATER FARTHER
   S ACROSS KS AND NRN OK. AND...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED SVR THREAT SHOULD BE
   GREATEST LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN KS NNE
   INTO ERN NEB...CONTINUED INFLOW OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE...NOCTURNAL
   STRENGTHENING OF LLJ...AND MORE DISCRETE STORM MODE MAY ALLOW THE
   SVR THREAT...INCLUDING A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK...TO LINGER INTO LATE
   EVE IN KS-NRN OK.

   ...S TX THIS AFTN/EVE...
   ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN OVER THE SRN AND PERHAPS
   MIDDLE TX GULF CSTL PLN AS POCKETS OF ENHANCED SFC HEATING DEVELOP
   IN MOIST /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/...WEAKLY-CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IN WAKE OF
   DEPARTING UPR IMPULSE. ALTHOUGH MODEST LARGE-SCALE
   SUBSIDENCE/MID-LVL WARMING SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE...DEVELOPING
   NWLY MID-LVL FLOW BEHIND UPR SYSTEM WILL YIELD LENGTHENING
   HODOGRAPHS...AND AMPLE /40+ KT/ DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE
   INTO A SMALL SWD-MOVING MCS...WITH EMBEDDED CELLS POSSIBLY POSING A
   RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND A NON-ZERO RISK FOR A
   TORNADO.

   ..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 04/24/2016

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