Apr 26, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 26 19:56:53 UTC 2016 (20160426 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160426 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160426 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 102,486 10,899,868 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...
ENHANCED 116,924 7,963,807 Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
SLIGHT 251,320 51,223,251 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Baltimore, MD...
MARGINAL 198,958 24,824,001 Houston, TX...Cincinnati, OH...Laredo, TX...Yonkers, NY...Little Rock, AR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160426 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 110,289 10,843,607 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...
10 % 121,271 11,353,319 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...
5 % 93,862 6,152,945 Tulsa, OK...Waco, TX...Olathe, KS...Killeen, TX...Tyler, TX...
2 % 136,428 8,857,552 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Shreveport, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160426 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
45 % 60,715 9,553,462 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
30 % 126,733 8,444,148 Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
15 % 230,367 49,425,339 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Austin, TX...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...
5 % 227,080 26,664,183 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Omaha, NE...Cincinnati, OH...Laredo, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160426 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 200,397 18,688,852 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
45 % 106,165 11,058,883 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...
30 % 72,770 3,771,194 Tulsa, OK...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Abilene, TX...Olathe, KS...
15 % 226,066 49,075,930 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Baltimore, MD...
5 % 248,115 27,755,036 Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...Laredo, TX...Yonkers, NY...
   SPC AC 261956

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N CNTRL TX NWD INTO SERN
   NEB...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT AREA...FROM
    S-CNTRL TX NNE INTO THE LWR MO AND MID-MS VLYS...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN IL...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S TX INTO THE LWR-MID OH
   VLYS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A WIDESPREAD...MULTI-EPISODE...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WEATHER EVENT
   APPEARS LIKELY LATER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TORNADOES...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND
   DAMAGING WIND WILL OCCUR. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO
   VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

   ...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE UNDER FILTERED
   SUNSHINE AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION. REGIONAL 18Z SOUNDINGS ALL
   SAMPLED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8 DEG C PER KM.
   THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING EXTREME INSTABILITY /SBCAPE
   GREATER THAN 3000 J PER KG/ FROM CENTRAL TX NWD INTO CNTRL KS.
   REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH EXPLOSIVE
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT STILL ANTICIPATED AS INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT RESULTS IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. 

   REFER TO MCD/S 456 AND 457 FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THE SVR THREAT
   ACROSS THIS REGION.

   ...SRN IL...
   RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SOME INCREASED FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF
   THE MCS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SRN IL. DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MID 60S. RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J
   PER KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME
   FORWARD-PROROGATION WITH A RELATIVELY LOCALIZED AREA OF WIND DAMAGE
   POSSIBLE. REFER TO MCD 458 FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THIS AREA. 

   ...ELSEWHERE...
   SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM THE OH
   VALLEY EWD TO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SEVERE PROBS WERE UPDATED
   TO REFLECT SVR WATCH 107.

   ..MOSIER/GUYER.. 04/26/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   NR CO UPR LOW WILL PIVOT ENE AS A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THIS
   PERIOD AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MS VLY...S AND W OF
   QSTNRY SE CANADA VORTEX. SATELLITE AND UPR AIR DATA SUGGEST TWO
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF NOTE IN BASE OF CO SYSTEM...ONE NOW OVER FAR W
   TX...AND THE OTHER...MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER.
   BOTH FEATURES SHOULD TURN NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH
   TNGT...LARGELY GOVERNING DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   REGION. FARTHER NE...A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ALONG SRN FLANK OF CANADIAN LOW...THE LEAD ONE
   OF WHICH WILL MOVE OF THE NJ CST THIS EVE.

   ...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
   VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BROAD CORRIDOR
   OF SBCAPE AOA 3500 J/KG FROM W CNTRL TX NNE INTO CNTRL AND ERN KS
   /COURTESY OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SURMOUNTED BY DEEP AND
   PRONOUNCED EML/...WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE WITH MDT TO STRONG SFC
   HEATING TODAY.

   COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE SHOULD PROMOTE INTENSE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTN ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH FROM W
   CNTRL TX NNE INTO OK AND KS. SIZABLE MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO 700-500
   MB FLOW ATTM DOWNSTREAM FROM THE IMPULSE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LVL
   BOUNDARY WILL SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL EWD MOVEMENT DURING THE DAY.

   STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW WITH APPROACH/EJECTION OF UPR
   IMPULSES /WITH 700-500 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS FROM NW TX
   INTO WRN/CNTRL OK/ LIKELY WILL PROMOTE NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND STRONG TORNADOES. ESPECIALLY IN
   TX AND SRN OK...THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN
   BANDS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH TNGT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...IN
   ADDITION LARGE HAIL AND SWATHS OF DMGG WIND ENE INTO THE ARKLATEX.

   SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST IN THE NEAR TERM FOR CURRENT ELEVATED
   STORMS IN CNTRL OK TO TAP INTO THE WARMING/VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER. WERE THIS TO OCCUR...SUCH A SCENARIO COULD JUMP-START SVR
   WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
   HAIL...NEWD INTO SE KS BY THIS AFTN.

   ...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
   HEATING AND APPROACH OF LEAD IMPULSE ALSO WILL SUPPORT RENEWED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT INVOF STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND QSTNRY SYNOPTIC FRONT
   OVER KS-MO-SRN NEB AREA LATER THIS AFTN. WHILE WIND PROFILES
   INITIALLY WILL BE WEAKER AN EXHIBIT BACK-VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT...PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS LATER
   TODAY THROUGH LATE TNGT. TORNADOES
   COULD OCCUR AS THE LIKELY NNE-MOVING STORMS INTERACT WITH ENHANCED
   SRH NEAR THE SLOWLY-MOVING BOUNDARIES.

   ...MID-MS VLY TO MID-ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN...
   RESIDUAL EML DEPICTED ON MORNING RAOBS FROM THE OH VLY TO
   MID-ATLANTIC CST WILL PROMOTE BOWING STRUCTURES IN DEEP
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WNW FLOW IN BASE OF CANADIAN VORTEX. HEATING...WIND
   PROFILES...AND DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE
   MOST FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE DMGG WIND GUSTS IN PA AND NJ...BUT MORE
   SLOWLY-MOVING CELLS WITH A MORE LOCALIZED WIND THREAT CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT OVER THE MID AND LWR OH VLYS. IN ADDITION...CURRENT CNTRL
   MO MCS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL INTO
   MID-LATE AFTN...DESPITE WEAKENING FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT...GIVEN
   ON-GOING DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF IT.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z