Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 070600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS/CANADA WILL SOMEWHAT ABATE
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE A CLOSED CYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA/LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA/SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PRINCIPALLY OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHEAST CO AND THE ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MO VALLEY TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
...CO/WY FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MOIST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED INTO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN CO/SOUTHERN WY FRONT RANGE
NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CO. AIDED BY THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A
NORTHEASTWARD-EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND
STEADILY INCREASE RELATIVELY EARLY TODAY...INITIALLY BY MIDDAY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOUNTAINS OF CO AND SOUTHERN WY...AND SOON
THEREAFTER /EARLY-MID AFTERNOON/ NEAR THE FOOTHILLS/URBAN CORRIDOR
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES COULD OCCUR /PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST CO/ AS STORMS
SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...OH VALLEY...
INFLUENCED BY THE ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES AMPLIFYING TROUGH...A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY...WHILE A COLD FRONT
SPREADS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. BENEATH AN
EASTWARD-ADVECTING PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...A PERSISTENT/MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FEED OF
MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD YIELD UPPER 50S/SOME LOWER
60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN UPWARDS OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT. BOUTS OF
SEVERE HAIL/WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AROUND PEAK HEATING...THE DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR WESTERN KS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO FAR SOUTHWEST TX IN VICINITY OF THE TX BIG
BEND. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHILE
AMPLE HEATING/MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE OTHERWISE
CONTRIBUTES TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWER 50S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40+
KT EFFECTIVE/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODEST BUOYANCY...HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELLS/SEMI-SUSTAINED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..GUYER/COOK.. 05/07/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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