May 7, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 7 06:00:58 UTC 2016 (20160507 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160507 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160507 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 95,499 9,079,542 Denver, CO...Cincinnati, OH...Aurora, CO...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...
MARGINAL 347,529 20,467,273 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160507 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 22,786 382,378 Greeley, CO...Cheyenne, WY...Evans, CO...Windsor, CO...Sterling, CO...
2 % 58,612 6,024,354 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...Thornton, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160507 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 66,281 6,055,045 Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...Bloomington, IN...Terre Haute, IN...
5 % 313,295 18,015,007 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Denver, CO...St. Louis, MO...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160507 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 94,474 9,063,712 Denver, CO...Cincinnati, OH...Aurora, CO...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...
5 % 270,180 19,050,383 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Lincoln, NE...
   SPC AC 070600

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE OHIO
   RIVER VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS/CANADA WILL SOMEWHAT ABATE
   DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
   AMPLIFY/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION...WHILE A CLOSED CYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA/LOWER CO
   RIVER VALLEY EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE
   TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA/SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
   AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PRINCIPALLY OCCUR
   ACROSS NORTHEAST CO AND THE ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A
   SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER
   MO VALLEY TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

   ...CO/WY FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   MOIST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED INTO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN CO/SOUTHERN WY FRONT RANGE
   NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
   EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CO. AIDED BY THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A
   NORTHEASTWARD-EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND
   STEADILY INCREASE RELATIVELY EARLY TODAY...INITIALLY BY MIDDAY OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOUNTAINS OF CO AND SOUTHERN WY...AND SOON
   THEREAFTER /EARLY-MID AFTERNOON/ NEAR THE FOOTHILLS/URBAN CORRIDOR
   INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES COULD OCCUR /PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST CO/ AS STORMS
   SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ...OH VALLEY...
   INFLUENCED BY THE ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES AMPLIFYING TROUGH...A SURFACE
   LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY...WHILE A COLD FRONT
   SPREADS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. BENEATH AN
   EASTWARD-ADVECTING PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...A PERSISTENT/MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FEED OF
   MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD YIELD UPPER 50S/SOME LOWER
   60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN UPWARDS OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE
   NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT. BOUTS OF
   SEVERE HAIL/WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   AROUND PEAK HEATING...THE DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR WESTERN KS
   SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO FAR SOUTHWEST TX IN VICINITY OF THE TX BIG
   BEND. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHILE
   AMPLE HEATING/MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE OTHERWISE
   CONTRIBUTES TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWER 50S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40+
   KT EFFECTIVE/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODEST BUOYANCY...HIGH-BASED
   SUPERCELLS/SEMI-SUSTAINED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ..GUYER/COOK.. 05/07/2016

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