May 10, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 10 05:58:24 UTC 2016 (20160510 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160510 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160510 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 104,409 14,293,484 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...
MARGINAL 369,179 29,847,775 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Nashville, TN...Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160510 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 67,963 7,462,373 Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...Evansville, IN...Clarksville, TN...
2 % 147,351 14,403,629 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Nashville, TN...Arlington, TX...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160510 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 104,596 14,471,066 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...
5 % 365,803 28,824,992 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Nashville, TN...Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160510 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 18,959 662,132 Weatherford, TX...Benbrook, TX...Brownwood, TX...White Settlement, TX...Stephenville, TX...
15 % 105,232 14,586,650 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...
5 % 363,589 28,918,883 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Nashville, TN...Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...
   SPC AC 100558

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
   OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SWWD INTO
   NEB...KS...AND NERN CO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD INTO
   VA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL TX INTO
   FAR SERN OK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTH
   TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HAIL
   AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS...WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS
   THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT
   APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. TO THE W...A MORE INTENSE UPPER LOW
   WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH A 60-70 KT
   MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ARCING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE DAKOTAS.

   AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER WRN ND AS WELL
   AS OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A DIFFUSE WARM
   FRONT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. MOIST SLY
   FLOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF
   INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
   VALLEY AND EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
   SEVERE STORMS.

   ...MID MS INTO THE OH VALLEY...
   A BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE
   PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF EARLY THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY.
   INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MID MS/LOWER
   OH VALLEY TUE MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   ON THE OF A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EWD AND MAY
   EVENTUALLY REJUVENATE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM THE SW MOISTURE
   ADVECTION AND HEATING. LATER IN THE DAY...THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
   WILL BE PRESENT OVER MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY/TN BUT THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NEWD. STILL...LIFT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND
   COLD PROFILES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING
   ACROSS SRN IL INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND SHIFTING EWD WITH TIME.
   LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SUPERCELLS. AN ENHANCED RISK CORRIDOR
   COULD BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE UNCERTAINTY IS REMOVED LATER
   TODAY.

   ...CNTRL TX...
   UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NWWD ACROSS TX WITH
   HEATING AND MIXING RESULTING IN A NEARLY STATIONARY DRYLINE FROM THE
   HILL COUNTRY NEWD INTO N CNTRL TX. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT E OF THE DRYLINE AIDED BY
   VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BE
   RELATIVELY WEAK...THEY WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT...AND UPPER/ANVIL-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG. THUS...HODOGRAPHS WILL BE NEARLY
   STRAIGHT SUPPORTING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
   LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   FORM NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
   SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE DALLAS/FT. WORTH AREA.

   ...E CNTRL CO...NRN KS AND SRN NEB...
   A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO NWRN KS AND SRN NEB
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT STRONG HEATING
   AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS TO
   DEVELOP WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND.
   OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE RAPIDLY NWD OUT OF OK
   INTO ERN KS WITH A 45 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
   SMALL MCS OVER NERN KS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT.

   ..JEWELL/COOK.. 05/10/2016

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