May 11, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 11 06:03:29 UTC 2016 (20160511 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160511 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160511 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 47,289 2,762,058 Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Muskogee, OK...
SLIGHT 218,024 19,885,612 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
MARGINAL 378,142 52,006,921 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Milwaukee, WI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160511 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 18,222 1,542,052 Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Muskogee, OK...Shawnee, OK...
2 % 181,909 13,393,256 Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Madison, WI...Rockford, IL...Springfield, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160511 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 47,779 2,826,844 Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...
15 % 216,344 19,266,686 Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
5 % 389,236 52,042,808 Chicago, IL...Dallas, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160511 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 46,763 2,945,424 Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...
15 % 218,192 19,287,828 Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...St. Louis, MO...
5 % 376,828 52,282,032 Chicago, IL...Dallas, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...
   SPC AC 110603

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF OK INTO
   NWRN TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX NEWD ACROSS THE
   LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA AND EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND
   OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEYS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN BY
   LATE IN THE DAY...CONCENTRATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
   TEXAS...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE AS WELL.  ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL OR WIND IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FROM THE OHIO
   VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL SWING NEWD ACROSS ND DURING THE DAY...DETACHING
   FROM THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE
   CNTRL PLAINS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY SPEED MAX ALOFT WILL
   BE LOCATED OVER ERN NEB INTO NRN KS...AND WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
   TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MIXES NWD
   ACROSS MO AND INTO CNTRL IL AND EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A
   VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...SUPPORTING
   SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE DAY FROM IA INTO THE OH VALLEY. OTHER
   STORMS WILL ALSO FORM ACROSS VA AND NC WITH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
   WEST AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE NOW PRODUCING
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER KY TUE EVENING.

   TO THE S...30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO OK AND FAR NRN TX...WITH A VERY WEAK
   SFC FRONT FROM WRN MO SWWD ACROSS CNTRL OK AND INTO NWRN TX BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. S OF THE BOUNDARY...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO
   EXIST...THOUGH THE EFFECTS OF TUE NIGHT STORMS OVER TX MAY PLAY A
   PIVOTAL ROLE IN DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY ACROSS OK AND TX.
   NONETHELESS...STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO INTENSE CLUSTERS OF
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
   ACROSS THE ENH RISK AREA.

   ...ERN KS AND MO EARLY IN THE DAY...
   SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO
   ERN KS/WRN MO THIS EVENING...AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
   ENVELOP MUCH OF NERN KS AND NWRN MO BY WED MORNING WITH A THREAT OF
   LARGE HAIL. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SAID CLUSTER DURING THE LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COULD ALSO RESULT IN A WIND THREAT
   ACROSS MO SHOULD AN MCS DEVELOP.

   ...OK INTO NRN TX LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
   HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SWD
   AND SLOWS FROM SWRN MO ACROSS CNTRL OK. WHILE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
   WITH DEWPOINTS OVER 70 F CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER OK...50S F DEWPOINTS
   ARE UPSTREAM NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO NRN TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   A LARGE STORM COMPLEX. THIS COMPLEX...ROUGHLY THE SIZE OF
   LOUISIANA...WAS NOT AT ALL INITIALIZED BY THE 00Z NAM WHICH
   MAINTAINS 70S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THEREFORE...MUCH
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME REGARDING PRECISELY HOW MUCH
   INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP S OF THE BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...WHETHER IT IS 2500 OR 4000
   J/KG MUCAPE...AND HODOGRAPH AUGMENTATION IN THE LOW-LEVELS IS ALSO
   POSSIBLE ALONG THE SAGGING BOUNDARY. CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR 00Z THE 12TH ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY...PERHAPS BEGINNING AS SUPERCELLS. HODOGRAPHS ARE
   RELATIVELY SMALL IN SIZE...BUT MAY FAVOR SLOW EWD-MOVING SUPERCELLS
   PRIOR TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S. LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE ENH AREA. IN ADDITION...A
   TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY INITIAL STORMS ON THE FRONT
   WHERE NLY SFC WINDS ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOP INTO NRN TX DURING THE EVENING.

   ...IA INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON...
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCALLY ENHANCED NEAR SFC LOW AS
   IT MOVES ACROSS IA. SOME HEATING IS EXPECTED WITH MID 60S F
   DEWPOINTS...AND WIND PROFILES WILL BE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. THIS MAY
   RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO
   FORECAST SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN MO TUE NIGHT
   INTO WED MORNING...AND THIS MAY AFFECT THE SFC LOW TRACK AS WELL AS
   INSTABILITY.  THE NAM SHOWS THE LOW OVER IA WITH AND THE GFS OVER
   NRN MO BY 00Z THE 12TH. CONDITIONALLY...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH ATTENDANT HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT...BUT
   UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME FOR GREATER SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/11/2016

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