May 15, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 15 05:46:44 UTC 2016 (20160515 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160515 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160515 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 22,532 136,464 Roswell, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Artesia, NM...
MARGINAL 199,284 11,410,435 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Lubbock, TX...Laredo, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160515 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 85,839 662,849 Odessa, TX...Roswell, NM...Del Rio, TX...Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160515 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 22,628 144,904 Roswell, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Artesia, NM...
5 % 199,514 11,433,037 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Lubbock, TX...Laredo, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160515 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 22,501 136,671 Roswell, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Artesia, NM...
5 % 199,912 11,438,083 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Lubbock, TX...Laredo, TX...
   SPC AC 150546

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE NM AND WEST
   TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES
   AND SRN PLAINS OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
   MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...ERN NM/WEST TX/FAR SE CO...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN RESPONSE TO
   THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES
   ESTABLISHED ACROSS WEST TX AND ERN NM. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS
   DEVELOPING AND MOVING EWD TOWARD AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

   RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE BIG BEND NWD TO NEAR ROSWELL NM
   INCREASE  MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO
   7.5 C/KM  AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ROTATING STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   MAY ALSO OCCUR AS DOWNDRAFTS MATURE AND CELLS MOVE INTO MAXIMIZED
   INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL FURTHER TO THE NORTH
   FROM THE WEST EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WWD INTO NERN NM WHERE INSTABILITY
   WILL BE WEAK. ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL WITH THE
   SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY DROPPING OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

   ...TX HILL COUNTRY/SW TX/TX COASTAL PLAINS...
   A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS A SUBTLE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE. THE NAM...GFS AND
   ECMWF ALL SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE
   PLACE IN RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY FROM NEAR DEL RIO SEWD INTO SOUTH
   TX AND EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
   BE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID TO
   UPPER 60S F...WHICH WILL ALLOW POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
   DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT CAN SUFFICIENTLY HEAT UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   THIS AFTERNOON FROM DEL RIO EWD TO NEAR SAN ANTONIO AND INTO THE TX
   COASTAL PLAINS SHOW ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
   FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.  CELLS THAT INTENSIFY AND OBTAIN
   ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS.

   ..BROYLES/DEAN.. 05/15/2016

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