Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 150546
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE NM AND WEST
TX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES
AND SRN PLAINS OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...ERN NM/WEST TX/FAR SE CO...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS WEST TX AND ERN NM. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING EWD TOWARD AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE BIG BEND NWD TO NEAR ROSWELL NM
INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO
7.5 C/KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MAY ALSO OCCUR AS DOWNDRAFTS MATURE AND CELLS MOVE INTO MAXIMIZED
INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL FURTHER TO THE NORTH
FROM THE WEST EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WWD INTO NERN NM WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK. ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY DROPPING OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
...TX HILL COUNTRY/SW TX/TX COASTAL PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE. THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF ALL SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE
PLACE IN RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY FROM NEAR DEL RIO SEWD INTO SOUTH
TX AND EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S F...WHICH WILL ALLOW POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT CAN SUFFICIENTLY HEAT UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM DEL RIO EWD TO NEAR SAN ANTONIO AND INTO THE TX
COASTAL PLAINS SHOW ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. CELLS THAT INTENSIFY AND OBTAIN
ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
..BROYLES/DEAN.. 05/15/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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