Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
67,324
2,036,454
Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
20,114
168,041
Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...Woodward, OK...Elk City, OK...Guymon, OK...
30 %
11,104
61,717
Woodward, OK...
15 %
56,456
1,979,482
Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...
5 %
183,213
14,154,978
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
SPC AC 160558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE TX...THE OK
PANHANDLE AND NW OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS OUTSIDE OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...PRIMARILY FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.
...SE CO/SRN KS/TX PANHANDLE/OK...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TODAY AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AT
THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NERN NM TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE IN PLACE
ACROSS WEST TX. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS WITH A CORRIDOR OF SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F
SETTING UP ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM CNTRL OK
WNWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND MOVE ESEWD
ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO SW KS...THE OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX
PANHANDLE. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE AS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO WRN AND CNTRL OK DURING THE
EARLY TO MID EVENING.
CONCERNING THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS BOTH
DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH MLCAPE
PEAKING IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE IN WRN OK. INSTABILITY
GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF WNWWD ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE INTO SERN CO
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S F. BECAUSE OF THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN SERN CO...THE DEVELOPING STORMS MAY STRUGGLE
INITIALLY BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS ALONG WITH
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE STORMS MOVE ESEWD INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOISE CITY OK EWD
TO WOODWARD OK AT 00Z/TUE SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WITH 850 TO
500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL WILL
BE LIKELY WITH ROTATING CELLS. ALTHOUGH A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE MAY PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
DURING THE EARLY EVENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED TORNADO
THREAT. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS.
...TEXAS..
WEST SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF TX. SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F
ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
WEST TX AND EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40
KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN SPITE OF WEAK-LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FURTHER
EAST...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS EAST TX BUT A
BELT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE SHOULD BE IN PLACE.
THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT IN AREAS THAT SUFFICIENTLY HEAT UP.
..BROYLES/PICCA.. 05/16/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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