May 16, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 16 05:58:03 UTC 2016 (20160516 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160516 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160516 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 11,239 61,876 Woodward, OK...
SLIGHT 55,913 1,974,275 Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...
MARGINAL 261,237 25,229,155 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160516 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 44,971 379,172 Altus, OK...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...Dumas, TX...Borger, TX...
2 % 99,322 6,452,403 Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160516 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 67,324 2,036,454 Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...
5 % 272,670 26,583,034 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160516 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 20,114 168,041 Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...Woodward, OK...Elk City, OK...Guymon, OK...
30 % 11,104 61,717 Woodward, OK...
15 % 56,456 1,979,482 Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...
5 % 183,213 14,154,978 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
   SPC AC 160558

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE TX...THE OK
   PANHANDLE AND NW OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS OUTSIDE OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS...PRIMARILY FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW
   MEXICO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
   OKLAHOMA.

   ...SE CO/SRN KS/TX PANHANDLE/OK...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   TODAY AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AT
   THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NERN NM TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
   ADVANCES SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE IN PLACE
   ACROSS WEST TX. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS WITH A CORRIDOR OF SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F
   SETTING UP ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN
   RESPONSE...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM CNTRL OK
   WNWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   LIKELY TO INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND MOVE ESEWD
   ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO SW KS...THE OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX
   PANHANDLE. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE AS A CLUSTER OF
   THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO WRN AND CNTRL OK DURING THE
   EARLY TO MID EVENING.

   CONCERNING THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS BOTH
   DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH MLCAPE
   PEAKING IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE IN WRN OK. INSTABILITY
   GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF WNWWD ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE INTO SERN CO
   WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S F. BECAUSE OF THE
   RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN SERN CO...THE DEVELOPING STORMS MAY STRUGGLE
   INITIALLY BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID TO LATE
   AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS ALONG WITH
   MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT AS THE STORMS MOVE ESEWD INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOISE CITY OK EWD
   TO WOODWARD OK AT 00Z/TUE SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WITH 850 TO
   500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE LIKELY WITH ROTATING CELLS. ALTHOUGH A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE MAY PRODUCE VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
   DURING THE EARLY EVENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED TORNADO
   THREAT. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
   LINE-SEGMENTS.

   ...TEXAS..
   WEST SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF TX. SFC
   DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F
   ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY
   AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
   WEST TX AND EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   MAY BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40
   KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS IN SPITE OF WEAK-LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FURTHER
   EAST...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS EAST TX BUT A
   BELT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE SHOULD BE IN PLACE.
   THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT IN AREAS THAT SUFFICIENTLY HEAT UP.

   ..BROYLES/PICCA.. 05/16/2016

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