SPC AC 161957

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

   VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...AND ADJACENT
   PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND
   WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT
   LOWER SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
   REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

   ...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
   CHANGES TO CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK LINES HAVE BEEN
   MADE...MOSTLY IN AN ATTEMPT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
   DESTABILIZATION TRENDS.

   FORCING AND FOCUS FOR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A DEVELOPING ZONE OF STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING
    REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WHAT IS DEPICTED BY THE UPDATED
   ENH RISK AREA.  HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
   AT LEAST SOME FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...PERHAPS GRADUALLY COINCIDING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
   WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING
   TOWARD THE PANHANDLE REGION.  WHERE THIS ZONE ENDS UP BY EARLY
   EVENING IS ONE SOURCE OF CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS
   MODELS.  MOST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TRENDING AT LEAST A BIT
   SOUTHWEST OF EARLIER INDICATIONS...WHICH APPEARS TO CLOSER MATCH
   CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

   ..KERR.. 05/16/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT THE NERN U.S. THIS PERIOD...A
   LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
   INTEREST.  SPECIFICALLY...A SMALLER-SCALE FEATURE SHIFTING ENEWD
   ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES ATTM WILL HELP TO FOCUS A ZONE OF ENHANCED
   CONVECTIVE RISK FOCUSED ON THE TX/OK PANHANDLE VICINITY.

   AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE NRN OK
   VICINITY WILL SHARPEN WITH TIME...WHILE A WEAK DRYLINE EVOLVES OVER
   WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/S PLAINS.  THIS LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE
   SHOULD FOCUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...SERN CO SEWD ACROSS THE TX/OH PNHDLS INTO CENTRAL OK...
   WHILE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS MOST OF THE RISK AREA
   ATTM...GRADUAL EROSION OF THE CLOUDINESS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED NWD
   ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW GRADUAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR FROM
   SERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. 
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING UPPER FEATURE --
   FOCUSED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT/DRYLINE INVOF THE PANHANDLES
   SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT -- LIKELY TO
   OCCUR INITIALLY ACROSS THE SERN CO AREA AND THEN EXPANDING ESEWD. 
   WITH LOW-LEVEL SELYS VEERING TO 40 TO 45 KT WSWLYS AT MID
   LEVELS...INITIAL STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR...WHERE
   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.  

   WITH TIME...CONVECTION SHOULD GROW UPSCALE LINEARLY...AND IT APPEARS
   THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH OTHER STORMS
   DEVELOPING FARTHER E ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK INVOF THE WARM FRONT AND
   THEN SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE OK VICINITY AS A LARGE MCS.  LOCALLY
   DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL RISK MAY PERSIST WITH THESE STORMS
   THROUGH THE EVENING -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN OK WHERE GREATER
   INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO EXIST.

   ...PARTS OF SWRN TX...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY
   ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND ADJACENT NRN MEXICO.  DESPITE
   A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED...CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION
   ACROSS THE AREA SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY ORGANIZE AND
   BECOME CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

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