Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
70,994
339,279
Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...Dumas, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
124,481
1,139,032
Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Gillette, WY...
SPC AC 210600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS. A MORE MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO EXIST OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
...SYNOPSIS...
OMEGA BLOCKING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. WRN U.S.
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY EWD. HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
EJECT NNEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. A RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. FARTHER EAST A SYNOPTIC
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...REACHING THE ERN
STATES THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OFF THE NC
COAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE CAROLINAS AND INTO NRN FL AND THE NRN GULF. FARTHER
WEST...A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL SETUP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE A
WARM FRONT MOVES NWD THROUGH TX.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
MOISTURE SHOULD UNDERGO A MODEST INCREASE BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS LIKELY MIXING DOWN INTO THE
40S F THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC
WARMING WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO 500-800 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COMBINED
WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MID-LEVEL JET...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. STORMS WILL BE
HIGH BASED ABOVE INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR
DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT UPDRAFT ROTATION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MLCAPE UP TO 800 J/KG WILL ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AS THEY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARD MID EVENING.
...SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
F WILL RETURN THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH EML
PLUME WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG/ EAST OF DRYLINE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN DEEP MIXING IN VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGING ALOFT...DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE
RELATIVELY MODEST /AOB 35 KT/ SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY MULTICELLS...BUT
SOME SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE LLJ AND VERTICAL SHEAR
INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND MAYBE A BRIEF TORNADO AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO
THE MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS.
...SERN STATES...
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO WLY FROM GA INTO THE CAROLINAS IN
RESPONSE TO OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS. THIS WILL KEEP RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHUNTED FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL REGION AND FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS FL. AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BECOME MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM
NEAR 800 J/KG OVER THE CAROLINAS TO 1500+ J/KG OVER FL. OVERALL
REGIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID-UPPER SUBSIDENCE WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ALOFT...BUT A WEAK CAP AND DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SRN APPALACHIANS...IN PORTIONS OF WARM SECTOR...AS WELL AS ALONG
THE EAST COAST FL SEABREEZE. ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
..DIAL/ROGERS.. 05/21/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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