May 21, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 21 16:29:53 UTC 2016 (20160521 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160521 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160521 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 108,332 1,106,244 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Gillette, WY...
MARGINAL 328,237 24,430,247 Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160521 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 9,769 71,164 Garden City, KS...
2 % 62,945 262,782 Gillette, WY...Liberal, KS...Dumas, TX...Borger, TX...Guymon, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160521 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 109,161 1,109,037 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Gillette, WY...
5 % 322,185 24,563,830 Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160521 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 16,690 145,637 Garden City, KS...Liberal, KS...Guymon, OK...
15 % 108,092 1,106,290 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Gillette, WY...
5 % 226,036 2,432,058 Billings, MT...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Victoria, TX...Rapid City, SD...
   SPC AC 211629

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

   VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS
   REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA.  A SEPARATE
   AREA OF SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO WEST
   CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.  A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING IN WESTERN KANSAS.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   A BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER PARTS OF CA/NV THIS
   MORNING...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS WESTERN CO.  THIS
   FEATURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE NEAR THE KS/CO
   BORDER...SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE.  12Z
   MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
   INTENSE CELLS LATER TODAY.  WHILE THE COVERAGE MAY BE
   LIMITED...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
   LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  IT APPEARS THE
   STORMS WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE
   WEAKENING DUE TO A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER
   RIDGE.

   ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH
   OF MT AND NORTHERN WY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE DELAYED. 
   NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED IN THIS CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
   WY.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG FLOW
   ALOFT...WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ...SOUTHEAST...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THIS FORECAST AREA.  RATHER STRONG
   WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES...ATOP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  A FEW STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THIS BROAD REGION...WITH A
   RISK OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

   ...SOUTHEAST TX...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE UPPER
   AND MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON...POSING THE RISK OF
   HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER CELLS.  AT THIS TIME...THE
   OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL.

   ..HART/DEAN.. 05/21/2016

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