Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
88,760
1,177,208
Wichita, KS...Enid, OK...Hutchinson, KS...Ponca City, OK...North Platte, NE...
2 %
714,761
39,642,614
Milwaukee, WI...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
252,638
8,834,044
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...
SPC AC 240600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA VICINITY...SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO OKLAHOMA AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT IN
THESE AREAS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL. OTHER SPORADIC MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A WIDE AREA FROM THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS.
...SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES GRADUALLY NWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND...A SECOND LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN STATES. IN BETWEEN...A BROAD ZONE OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE SWRN STATES NEWD INTO THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE RISK
WILL BE A BROAD LEE LOW...AND DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NEB/KS/OK AND VICINITY...
A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO IS EVOLVING ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY...AS
STORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER NERN CO AND INTO NRN KS ARE FORECAST TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS THE KS/NRN OK
VICINITY AND LATER INTO MO AND POSSIBLY AR. EXACT
EVOLUTION/TRACKING OF THIS CONVECTION WITH TIME REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...AS WILL THE LOCATION OF REMNANT OUTFLOW -- COLLECTIVELY
PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING SWD ACROSS KS INTO OK THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION WILL ALTER BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...AS WELL AS THE FAVORED ZONES FOR NEW/AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
WHILE ONGOING STORMS WITHIN THE ANTICIPATED MCS MAY POSSIBLY POSE A
LOCAL/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TWO FAVORED AREAS FOR NEW STORM
INITIATION APPEAR TO BE:
1. ALONG A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE TOWARD WRN OK
-- AND POSSIBLY IN PARTICULAR NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THIS DRYLINE
AND THE ANTICIPATED/SWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
2. ACROSS THE NERN CO/ERN WY VICINITY AS A VERY WEAK/SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH/VORT MAX CROSSES UT AND SHIFTS INTO WY/CO DURING
THE AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT INTO THE
PLAINS ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A VERY HIGH-CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS
AGAIN ANTICIPATED E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF AREAS CONTAMINATED BY
ONGOING/PRIOR CONVECTION. WEAKER -- BUT SUFFICIENT -- LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING TO YIELD 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THIS REGION.
WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL WSWLYS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
AHEAD OF THE PERSISTENT WRN TROUGH...AND LOW-LEVEL SLYS
BENEATH...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS.
LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE RISK AREA...THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO RISK WOULD LIKELY
EXIST NEAR THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION...WITH SECONDARY POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.
SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH STORMS
LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE -- POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO MCS/S OVER THE
SD/NEB VICINITY...AS WELL AS THE KS/OK/OZARKS REGION.
...TX...
S OF THE RED RIVER/TX PANHANDLE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT -- AND THUS A PERSISTENTLY CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER. ANY UPDRAFT WHICH WOULD DEVELOP/BECOME MAINTAINED WOULD --
GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/STRONG INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAPPING
LAYER AND AMPLY WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW -- BECOME SEVERE...POSING A
RISK FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...WITH THE NAM AND AVAILABLE
CAM GUIDANCE DEPICTING A LACK OF CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A
CONDITIONAL/MRGL RISK ACROSS THIS AREA.
...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AS MODEST AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS INVOF A WEAK
COOL FRONT PROGGED TO TRAIL ROUGHLY W-E ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE
WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE CAPE EXPECTED THROUGH PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..GOSS/ROGERS.. 05/24/2016
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