May 26, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 26 06:02:35 UTC 2016 (20160526 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160526 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160526 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 116,926 3,681,548 Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Abilene, TX...
SLIGHT 328,074 24,784,270 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...
MARGINAL 373,560 32,235,308 Austin, TX...Colorado Springs, CO...Minneapolis, MN...St. Louis, MO...St. Paul, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160526 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 41,937 1,633,664 Lincoln, NE...Bellevue, NE...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Grand Island, NE...
5 % 47,384 1,592,488 Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Topeka, KS...Council Bluffs, IA...Hutchinson, KS...
2 % 309,516 23,474,933 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160526 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 444,895 28,437,533 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...
5 % 373,312 32,079,289 Austin, TX...Colorado Springs, CO...Minneapolis, MN...St. Louis, MO...St. Paul, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160526 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 155,409 3,974,465 Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Abilene, TX...
30 % 125,685 4,025,030 Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Abilene, TX...
15 % 319,210 24,412,502 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...
5 % 373,312 32,079,289 Austin, TX...Colorado Springs, CO...Minneapolis, MN...St. Louis, MO...St. Paul, MN...
   SPC AC 260602

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NEB/KS VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND
   CENTRAL TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
   VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND EXTENDING
   SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
   WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
   AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STEADY EWD PROGRESSION OF WRN U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST FOR
   THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND
   NOSING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES WITH TIME.  AS HEIGHT
   FALLS OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...A LEE LOW OVER
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO WRN KS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN NEB.  THIS LOW
   AND WARM FRONT...A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS OK/TX...AND RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY FOCUS SEVERAL
   AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS VICINITY...
   A VERY COMPLEX/UNCERTAIN SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ONCE AGAIN FOR
   THURSDAY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/LOCATION AND SPECIFICS OF EVOLUTION
   OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION.  ONGOING STORMS ATTM -- AND
   ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING -- WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR...WITH SWATHS OF THE WARM SECTOR
   BECOMING CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN HERETOFORE UNCERTAIN LOCATIONS.

   WITH THAT SAID...THE BROADER PICTURE -- WHICH INCLUDES A LARGE WRN
   UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADING EWD
   TOWARD THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR BENEATH VERY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE -- IS SUGGESTIVE
   OF AT LEAST LOCALLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.  ALONG WITH RISK
   FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE.  ATTM...TWO MAIN CORRIDORS OF SEVERE RISK INCLUDE:

   1.  SRN NEB AND MUCH OF KS -- AND POSSIBLY INTO NERN CO -- INVOF THE
   FORECAST-TO-BE-DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND
   POTENTIALLY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER CENTRAL AND ERN KS

   2.  PARTS OF W CENTRAL TX INCLUDING THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG
   COUNTRY REGIONS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE

   AS MENTIONED ABOVE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT /AWAY FROM AREAS
   WHICH EXPERIENCE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/ ATOP A VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORMS...AND 45-55 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW SPREADING EWD ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  AGAIN
   THOUGH...NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND SPECIFIC LOCALES OF GREATEST RISK
   REMAIN DIFFICULT ATTM...WITH AN ARRAY OF THE LATEST PARAMETERIZED
   AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS EXHIBIT DIVERSE/DISPARATE SOLUTIONS
   REGARDING CONVECTIVE TIMING/INITIATION/PROGRESSION.  THOUGH THE
   ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF RISK FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES...DETAILS PRECLUDE ANY
   FURTHER SPECIFICATION ATTM.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY...
   ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
   THURSDAY AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.  WHILE AT LEAST PARTS OF THIS REGION -- LIKE AREAS
   FARTHER S -- WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION...SOME
   DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH MODERATE /40 TO 45 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLYS
   WILL SUPPORT RISK HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST
   STORMS.

   ..GOSS/MOSIER.. 05/26/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z