May 26, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 26 16:30:07 UTC 2016 (20160526 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160526 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160526 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 22,732 443,642 Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Hays, KS...Junction City, KS...
ENHANCED 113,277 2,604,794 Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...
SLIGHT 321,111 26,216,432 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
MARGINAL 457,983 42,360,616 Chicago, IL...Memphis, TN...Milwaukee, WI...Denver, CO...Minneapolis, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160526 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 38,972 574,528 Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Dodge City, KS...Hays, KS...
15 % 22,928 439,262 Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Hays, KS...Junction City, KS...
10 % 33,170 695,540 Lincoln, NE...Dodge City, KS...Newton, KS...Beatrice, NE...Woodward, OK...
5 % 105,349 4,080,584 Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Topeka, KS...Abilene, TX...Olathe, KS...
2 % 223,498 17,662,180 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160526 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 456,804 29,235,813 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
5 % 414,214 39,206,698 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Minneapolis, MN...St. Louis, MO...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160526 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 141,549 2,605,020 Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Abilene, TX...San Angelo, TX...Salina, KS...
45 % 22,919 442,659 Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Hays, KS...Junction City, KS...
30 % 117,540 2,599,586 Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...
15 % 316,143 26,209,887 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
5 % 457,854 42,349,095 Chicago, IL...Memphis, TN...Milwaukee, WI...Denver, CO...Minneapolis, MN...
   SPC AC 261630

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN NEB...ACROSS
   KS...INTO WESTERN OK AND WEST TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
   NEBRASKA...KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL
   TEXAS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BE
   POSSIBLE OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...NEB/KS...
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW NEAR DDC...WITH A
   WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS.  A VERY
   MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR
   OF THE LOW...WHERE NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG.  GIVEN THE
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS THIS
   AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
   EVENT OVER PARTS OF KS AND SOUTHERN NEB.  

   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
   OVER SOUTHWEST KS...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. 
   MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS MAY BE MESSY
   WITH MIXED MODES.  HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WIND
   FIELDS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...SUGGESTS THE RISK OF STRONG
   TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.  THERE IS SOME RISK OF MULTIPLE
   ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KS AS STORMS EMANATING FROM CO
   MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK.

   ...WESTERN OK/WEST TX...
   MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING THE STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND EARLY CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF TX/OK.  THIS IS LEADING TO
   RAPID BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYING/STABILIZATION IN SEVERAL MODEL
   SOLUTIONS.  WHILE THIS MAY BE PARTIALLY CORRECT...IT IS LIKELY
   OVERDONE.  IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE
   MAINTAINED ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED
   SUPERCELL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. 
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW
   TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
   EXIST OVER NORTHWEST OK WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF WIND FIELDS
   AND FORCING WILL OVERLAP.

   ..HART/COOK.. 05/26/2016

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