May 31, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 31 06:00:40 UTC 2016 (20160531 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160531 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160531 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 616,568 40,827,577 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160531 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 93,716 2,952,312 Lubbock, TX...Laredo, TX...Amarillo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Midland, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160531 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 616,844 40,860,089 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160531 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 324,909 20,580,585 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
   SPC AC 310600

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
   MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EARLY EVENING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD
   INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST
   REGION. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A COMPLEX SPLIT-FLOW
   REGIME TODAY. IN THE NRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
   THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   THIS EVENING. WEAKER SRN-STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN AZ WILL DRIFT
   VERY SLOWLY EWD INTO NWRN MEXICO. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   NRN-STREAM TROUGH WILL OCCLUDE OVER ND WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
   CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE SWRN
   EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE DURING
   THE DAY.  

   ...SRN PLAINS...

   MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST OVER SRN AND
   CNTRL TX...AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF
   TX WITH LOW 60S FARTHER WEST INTO WRN TX. SEVERAL MCVS...NUMEROUS
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXIST ACROSS WRN TX...AND
   ONGOING STORMS OVER NRN MEXICO THROUGH FAR WRN TX APPEAR TO BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SRN-STREAM IMPULSE. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
   THE ATMOSPHERE TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
   OVER WRN AND SWRN TX WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST AS
   WELL AS FARTHER EAST THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN TX WHERE RICH LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE RESIDES. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALSO LIKELY NWD INTO OK.
   SEVERAL MECHANISMS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL EXIST INCLUDING
   ALONG THE SWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN OK AND THE TX
   PANHANDLE...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN TX AND ERN NM...AND ALONG ANY
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER WRN TX. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVER
   MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER
   VERTICAL SHEAR OVER SWRN AND SRN TX WHERE A BELT OF SLIGHTLY
   STRONGER WINDS RESIDES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THESE
   REGIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY POSE A
   RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. 

   GIVEN COMPLEXITIES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
   CONVECTION...UNCERTAINTIES WHERE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS
   WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH BEST DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...ALONG
   WITH THE MODEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL RISK THIS
   UPDATE. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
   REGION IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

   ONGOING STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY TODAY.
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. A FEW
   STORMS MIGHT PRODUCE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. 

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH GULF COAST REGION...

   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY INTO GULF COAST REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF A FEW WET
   MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

   ..DIAL/DEAN.. 05/31/2016

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