Jun 3, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 3 05:47:12 UTC 2016 (20160603 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160603 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160603 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 62,117 3,059,884 Omaha, NE...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Waterloo, IA...
MARGINAL 130,257 7,951,399 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Cedar Rapids, IA...Rochester, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160603 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 58,985 5,638,932 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Rochester, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160603 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 62,399 3,079,140 Omaha, NE...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Waterloo, IA...
5 % 130,237 7,929,953 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Cedar Rapids, IA...Rochester, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160603 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 62,281 3,122,786 Omaha, NE...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Waterloo, IA...
5 % 128,787 7,820,162 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Cedar Rapids, IA...Rochester, MN...
   SPC AC 030547

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2016

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
   MISSOURI INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
   MISSOURI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG AN
   AXIS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...AND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
   U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING MAY AMPLIFY FURTHER WITHIN A BELT OF
   MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST.
    AT THE SAME TIME...A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MAY SHIFT
   SOUTHWARD ALONG A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
   HOLDS FIRM OR BUILDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO MID
   ATLANTIC COAST.

   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS REGIME...SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
   STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES EAST OF THE
   ROCKIES.  AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF A PLUME OF
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MAY
   BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED OR CUT-OFF ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS REGION.  GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...SEASONABLY MODEST CAPE AND/OR WEAK LOWER THROUGH MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS SEEM LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY IMPACT A
   NUMBER OF AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

   ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AHEAD OF THE DIGGING LARGER-SCALE
   UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UNCLEAR.  THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIVE
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIALLY LIMITING FACTOR
   WITH REGARD TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF THE
   DAY.  GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A ZONE OF STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
   SURFACE HEATING MAY DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MIDDLE
   MISSOURI VALLEY...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA INTO
   SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR STRONGEST
   DESTABILIZATION...IN ADVANCE OF  A SIGNIFICANT SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSE
   WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE MIDDLE
   MISSOURI VALLEY THIS EVENING.  MODELS DO INDICATE THAT A MORE
   SUBSTANTIVE INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA...WHERE IT MAY NOT
   BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT DESTABILIZATION COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
   UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CAPABLE
   OF GENERATING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WHILE DEVELOPING
   SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MID-LEVEL FORCING...BEFORE WEAKENING
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ..KERR/LEITMAN.. 06/03/2016

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