Jun 4, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 4 05:30:12 UTC 2016 (20160604 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160604 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160604 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 156,771 24,066,212 Columbus, OH...Nashville, TN...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...
MARGINAL 152,243 32,005,950 Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Cleveland, OH...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160604 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 67,099 10,161,372 Nashville, TN...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...Clarksville, TN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160604 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 156,771 24,066,212 Columbus, OH...Nashville, TN...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...
5 % 152,240 32,016,946 Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Cleveland, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160604 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 040530

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2016

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   APPALACIANS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
   THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS...INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID
   ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
   REGION TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE SOME FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGING
   NOW BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS
   PERIOD...MAINLY ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH SOME EXPANSION
   EAST OF THE ROCKIES...INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
    THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF UPPER TROUGHING
   WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
   PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SOME
   SHARPENING OF THIS TROUGHING IS POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS
   THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION BEGINS TO WEAKEN.  FOR A
   PERIOD...THIS TROUGHING MAY ALSO COME INCREASINGLY IN PHASE WITH
   REMNANT SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO
   NORTHEAST MEXICO...ALONG WHICH AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MAY
   CONTINUE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 
   AT THE SAME TIME...WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONIC
   UPPER FLOW...AN IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
   PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS INLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   CALIFORNIA.

   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE DEVELOPMENTS...DESTABILIZATION MAY LEAD TO
   SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES ...SHASTAS AND SISKIYOUS INTO THE
   NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
   OF CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WESTERN WYOMING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES.  EAST OF THE ROCKIES...STEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE PLAINS...WHERE CONSIDERABLE
   FURTHER DRYING IS FORECAST ON NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
   FLOW.  MODELS INDICATE SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE  WESTERN GULF COAST REGION...AND
   AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
   ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN
   VALLEY...AHEAD OF A BROAD DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES.  WITHIN THIS MOIST REGIME... CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM
   APPEARS LIKELY...WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MAXIMIZED IN PEAK LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY DRIVEN LARGELY BY
   INSOLATION.

   ...OHIO VALLEY INTO APPALACHIANS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID
   ATLANTIC STATES...
   ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE EARLY DAY CLOUD
   COVER...PARTICULARLY IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...MUCH OF THE REGION IS
   EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST MODEST
   BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION /CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000+ J PER KG/
   TO TAKE PLACE WITH INSOLATION.  THIS PROBABLY WILL LEAD TO
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  DURING THE 18-21Z TIME
   FRAME...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 

   MODELS INDICATE THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL COINCIDE WITH
   STRENGTHENING  OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /TO 30-40+ KT IN THE
   700-500 MB LAYER/...BETWEEN THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND THE
   LINGERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED STORM
   CLUSTERS WITH AT LEAST MODEST STORM MOTIONS.  AIDED BY HEAVY
   PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT...STRONGER
   ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL POTENTIALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

   ..KERR/LEITMAN.. 06/04/2016

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