Jun 12, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 12 05:39:35 UTC 2016 (20160612 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160612 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160612 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 58,173 1,568,261 Fargo, ND...St. Cloud, MN...Moorhead, MN...Watertown, SD...Willmar, MN...
MARGINAL 298,987 13,942,507 Denver, CO...Virginia Beach, VA...Colorado Springs, CO...Minneapolis, MN...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160612 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 36,111 4,581,594 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Fargo, ND...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160612 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 58,173 1,568,261 Fargo, ND...St. Cloud, MN...Moorhead, MN...Watertown, SD...Willmar, MN...
5 % 295,407 13,897,698 Denver, CO...Virginia Beach, VA...Colorado Springs, CO...Minneapolis, MN...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160612 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 58,173 1,568,261 Fargo, ND...St. Cloud, MN...Moorhead, MN...Watertown, SD...Willmar, MN...
5 % 221,200 8,780,419 Virginia Beach, VA...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...
   SPC AC 120539

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
   WRN/CNTRL MN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SE VA AND NE NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
   STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MID-ATLANTIC.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MT IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD...EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH SRN MANITOBA
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ACTING TO DAMPEN THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL CONUS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
   ACROSS ND AND NRN MD WHILE THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
   NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

   FARTHER E...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
   WHILE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM SPREAD
   OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ME WHILE A RELATED COLD FRONT
   SWEEPS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. WRN PORTION OF THIS
   FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT THAT INTERSECTS THE ND SURFACE
   LOW. 

   ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   WHILE SOME ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
   THE PERIOD...PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  AIRMASS
   THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND
   TEMPERATURES NEAR 90. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY BE REALIZED
   ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND MIXING. THESE
   SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESPITE THE
   LACK OF ANY LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   FRONT COUPLED WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
   IN A LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW
   AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SRN EXTENT...WITH THE
   BEST CHANCE OF SVR NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. PRIMARY SVR HAZARD IS WIND
   WITH SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS A SECONDARY THREAT. LOW TORNADO
   THREAT ALSO EXISTS NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE WINDS WILL BE BACKED
   BUT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKLY
   ORGANIZED AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT. 

   ...CNTRL PLAINS/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HERE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AREAS NW
   BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER AND...AS A RESULT...THE
   AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MID-AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE
   FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST THIS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE ALONG THE
   FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM
   ORGANIZATION BUT A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
   SOME GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. GUSTY
   CONVECTIVE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN WY WHERE
   BETTER DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS. 

   ...MID-ATLANTIC WWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
   60S ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
   AREA. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE
   OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK ALONG
   MUCH OF THE FRONT...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE
   OUTFLOW DOMINANT MULTICELLS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND THE
   SERN VA/NERN NC WHERE SOME OVERLAP BETWEEN INSTABILITY AND STRONGER
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS. HERE...SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE PERSISTENT STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   ..MOSIER/GLEASON.. 06/12/2016

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