Jun 14, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 14 05:50:57 UTC 2016 (20160614 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160614 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160614 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 31,738 1,504,152 Des Moines, IA...Waterloo, IA...Ames, IA...West Des Moines, IA...Cedar Falls, IA...
SLIGHT 88,312 6,835,536 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
MARGINAL 391,696 29,812,298 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160614 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 50,120 2,699,737 Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...Waterloo, IA...Iowa City, IA...Dubuque, IA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160614 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 31,778 1,500,544 Des Moines, IA...Waterloo, IA...Ames, IA...West Des Moines, IA...Cedar Falls, IA...
15 % 87,408 6,748,999 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
5 % 388,080 29,102,385 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160614 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 29,897 1,410,183 Des Moines, IA...Ames, IA...West Des Moines, IA...Cedar Falls, IA...Ankeny, IA...
15 % 78,622 4,513,324 Omaha, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Cedar Rapids, IA...Davenport, IA...Rochester, MN...
5 % 395,685 30,986,148 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Kansas City, MO...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...
   SPC AC 140550

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL IA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
   MID MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX
   REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO WILL CONTINUE EWD
   THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. UPPER
   RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
   REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH FLANKING UPPER TROUGHS.
   THIS OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE
   OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME AMPLIFICATION OF
   THE UPPER RIDGE AS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

   SURFACE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
   SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED WITH THE MOST DISCERNIBLE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
   SEPARATING THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER PLAINS FROM MORE
   CONTINENTAL AIR FARTHER N AND E. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND
   FROM A LOW NEAR THE CNTRL NEB/SD BORDER ESEWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF
   THE MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
   DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES NEWD...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD AS
   WELL.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS AS WELL AS REMNANT
   OUTFLOW AND/OR ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING WILL ALL PLAY A ROLE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT...PERSISTENCE...
   AND SEVERITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT
   THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER NEB
   CONTINUES ENEWD. MOST RECENTLY AVAILABLE GUIDANCE -- BOTH
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND DETERMINISTIC -- DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
   ON THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NEB...WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TOO
   SLOW WITH ITS EWD PROGRESSION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL REACH THE MID MO VALLEY AROUND 12Z AND THEN
   CONTINUE NEWD INTO MN. CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION
   WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT ALREADY IN PLACE WITH REMNANT
   OUTFLOW FARTHER W ACTING AS THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT. EVEN IF THE
   OUTFLOW WASHES OUT...THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EWD INTO THE
   REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND ACT AS AN IMPETUS FOR
   CONVECTION. GIVEN THIS COMPLEX PATTERN...WHEN CONVECTION INITIATION
   OCCURS AND HOW CONVECTION ACTUALLY EVOLVES IS UNCERTAIN BUT
   SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS LIKELY.

   MOIST AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION /03Z SURFACE
   ANALYSIS HAD 70 DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS SRN IA/ AND ERN EDGE OF
   THE EML PLUME IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
   RESULTING INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING
   MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH STORMS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME BACKED SURFACE
   WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR HERE RESULTING IN A LOW TORNADO THREAT.

   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
   LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. DESPITE MEAGER LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COUPLED WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
   GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS.
   FARTHER E -- I.E. NEAR THE MT/DAKOTAS BORDER -- ISOLATED STORMS
   CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NW SIDE
   OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.

   ...PORTIONS OF FAR SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX...
   MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OK MAY PROVIDE A LOW PROBABILITY RISK
   FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS
   FAR SE OK AND NE TX. ADDITIONALLY...TRAILING OUTFLOW MAY PROVIDE THE
   IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
   CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL
   INITIATION PRECLUDES EXTENDING ANY PROBABILITIES FARTHER W.

   ..MOSIER/GLEASON.. 06/14/2016

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