Jun 17, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 17 05:32:55 UTC 2016 (20160617 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160617 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160617 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 465,200 24,865,446 Memphis, TN...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160617 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 145,041 1,304,212 Sioux Falls, SD...Billings, MT...Rapid City, SD...Casper, WY...Aberdeen, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160617 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 464,413 24,658,739 Memphis, TN...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160617 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 271,233 4,354,084 Sioux Falls, SD...Fort Collins, CO...Thornton, CO...Westminster, CO...Arvada, CO...
   SPC AC 170532

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
   STATES AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
   NRN PLAINS WWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY EVENING. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE GULF COAST STATES
   AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NEWD TODAY. AT THE SFC..A COLD
   FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AS SFC
   TEMPS WARM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
   RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE
   FRONT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OR
   PERHAPS A BROKEN LINE SEGMENT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
   ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   NRN CO AND ERN WY WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND
   NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. 

   DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
   NRN PLAINS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL
   FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MODEST. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN NEB AND ERN
   SD SHOW MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG BUT KEEP 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
   GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. THIS SHOULD KEEP STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED.
   DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
   MULTICELLS. 

   FURTHER TO THE WEST INTO ERN WY AND NE CO...CONVECTION IS FORECAST
   TO REMAIN ISOLATED BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER DUE
   TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH
   STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS
   ISOLATED STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE EARLY
   EVENING.

   ...GULF COAST STATES/LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. TODAY AS
   AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F WILL RESULT IN
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE LOWER TO
   MID MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AS SFC TEMPS WARM
   AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE AROUND
   MIDDAY. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS COULD
   DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM NEAR JACKSON MS EWD TO COLUMBUS GA
   SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW TO
   MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE
   ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A COLD POOL
   OR LINE SEGMENT CAN DEVELOP.

   ..BROYLES/PICCA.. 06/17/2016

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