Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
145,041
1,304,212
Sioux Falls, SD...Billings, MT...Rapid City, SD...Casper, WY...Aberdeen, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
271,233
4,354,084
Sioux Falls, SD...Fort Collins, CO...Thornton, CO...Westminster, CO...Arvada, CO...
SPC AC 170532
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS WWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE GULF COAST STATES
AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NEWD TODAY. AT THE SFC..A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE
FRONT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OR
PERHAPS A BROKEN LINE SEGMENT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN CO AND ERN WY WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MODEST. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN NEB AND ERN
SD SHOW MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG BUT KEEP 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. THIS SHOULD KEEP STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED.
DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
MULTICELLS.
FURTHER TO THE WEST INTO ERN WY AND NE CO...CONVECTION IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN ISOLATED BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER DUE
TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS
ISOLATED STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
...GULF COAST STATES/LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. TODAY AS
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE LOWER TO
MID MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AS SFC TEMPS WARM
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE AROUND
MIDDAY. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS COULD
DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM NEAR JACKSON MS EWD TO COLUMBUS GA
SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A COLD POOL
OR LINE SEGMENT CAN DEVELOP.
..BROYLES/PICCA.. 06/17/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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