Sep 10, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 10 05:56:52 UTC 2016 (20160910 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160910 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160910 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 105,966 20,973,117 Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...Buffalo, NY...
MARGINAL 100,335 15,193,845 Detroit, MI...Nashville, TN...Toledo, OH...Warren, MI...Sterling Heights, MI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160910 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 17,902 1,796,969 Rochester, NY...Syracuse, NY...Irondequoit, NY...Brighton, NY...Rome, NY...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160910 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 106,247 20,983,649 Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...Buffalo, NY...
5 % 100,428 15,195,003 Detroit, MI...Nashville, TN...Toledo, OH...Warren, MI...Sterling Heights, MI...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160910 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 51,381 12,740,270 Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...
   SPC AC 100556

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY NWD INTO WRN
   NY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO WRN NEW
   ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING FROM KENTUCKY INTO OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT
   ACROSS NEW YORK AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE PRIMARY
   CONCERN DAMAGING WIND.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND
   GREAT LAKES...AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE DEEPENS ACROSS ERN
   CANADA. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY
   SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX BY EARLY EVENING...AND
   WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/N OF THE
   OH VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY RETREAT NWD ACROSS NY INTO NEW
   ENGLAND AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING ACROSS
   THE NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
   AND SPREAD A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL CONUS.
   FARTHER W...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
   THE PAC NW. 

   ...MID-SOUTH NEWD TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...
   EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND ALLOW FOR
   STRONG SFC HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL
   PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NEAR THE IND/OH BORDER SWWD INTO WRN TN. A
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F
   DEWPOINTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE VALUES
   RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. CONVECTION SHOULD
   QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON N OF THE OH VALLEY
   WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RELATIVELY STRONGER...WHILE
   CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S. WITH 20-30 KT OF
   LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES...STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
   PREDOMINANT THREAT. THIS THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING
   WITH THE AIR MASS PROGRESSIVELY LESS UNSTABLE INTO THE APPALACHIANS.

   ...NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
   A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD FROM NEAR LAKE ONTARIO EARLY IN
   THE MORNING TO NRN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION SHOULD AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY PRECIPITATION
   TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY ADVANCE N OF THE
   INTL BORDER BY LATE MORNING. SUFFICIENT HEATING/CLEARING SHOULD
   OCCUR IN ITS WAKE TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. NRN EXTENT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE IS
   FORECAST TO ENTER WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO VICINITY AFTER 11/00Z...AND
   WILL POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS. A STRENGTHENING LLJ
   ACROSS THE REGION MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW EMBEDDED
   ROTATING STORMS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT.

   ..ROGERS/GLEASON.. 09/10/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z