Jan 15, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 15 17:20:47 UTC 2016 (20160115 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160115 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160115 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 8,599 2,061,880 Cape Coral, FL...Sarasota, FL...Fort Myers, FL...Port Charlotte, FL...Lehigh Acres, FL...
MARGINAL 24,563 11,909,983 Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160115 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 8,629 2,063,542 Cape Coral, FL...Sarasota, FL...Fort Myers, FL...Port Charlotte, FL...Lehigh Acres, FL...
5 % 24,917 12,121,360 Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...
   SPC AC 151720

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL AND THE
   SWRN FL PENINSULA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN FL
   PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE THE EASTERN GULF OF
   MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
   TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE FROM NRN
   MEXICO AND SWRN TX EWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYBREAK
   SUNDAY.  FARTHER N...A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SEWD INTO THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS
   MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE ROCKIES.  A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   MOVE ASHORE THE NRN CA/OREGON COAST EARLY BEFORE ANOTHER
   LARGER-SCALE TROUGH ENCROACHES ON THE PACIFIC NW COAST AT THE END OF
   THE PERIOD.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCES NWD
   OVER THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND PARTS OF THE FL
   PENINSULA.  

   ...CNTRL AND SRN FL PENINSULA...
   THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA ON FRIDAY IS FORECAST
   TO STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS AND SRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE START OF
   THE DAY 2 PERIOD AND ADVANCE NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CNTRL AND
   ERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.  RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S DEG F N TO 70
   DEG F S WILL OVERSPREAD THE W COAST OF FL IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
   THE SURFACE LOW COINCIDENT WITH INTENSIFYING SSWLY H92-H85 FLOW OF
   45-65 KT.  VERY STRONG ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE
   THE PBL FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING
   MUCAPE RANGING 1000-250 J PER KG FROM S TO N.  UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION/HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SUPPORT
   A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND MOVING INTO THE
   W COAST CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS AND THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE
   17/06-12Z PERIOD.  SIZABLE HODOGRAPHS /200-300 M2 PER S2 0-1 SRH/
   BENEATH 70+ KT H5 SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   STORM-SCALE ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  ISOLD DMGG
   STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK APPEAR GREATEST ACROSS THE
   W-CNTRL FL PENINSULA AND AREAS INTO SWRN FL WHERE HIGHER STORM
   COVERAGE IS FORECAST.

   ..SMITH.. 01/15/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z