Mar 31, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 31 17:34:55 UTC 2016 (20160331 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160331 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160331 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 173,568 20,865,438 Charlotte, NC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
MARGINAL 114,353 49,179,943 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Atlanta, GA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160331 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 174,503 21,248,474 Charlotte, NC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
5 % 114,697 48,955,243 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Atlanta, GA...
   SPC AC 311734

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GULF COAST REGION
   THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS AND SERN VA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GULF COAST REGION
   THROUGH A PORTION OF THE NERN STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN AND
   CENTRAL GULF COAST REGIONS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE MID ATLANTIC.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
   BROAD POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION. SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH NRN
   STREAM AND ACCELERATE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES.
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AN UPPER JET INITIALLY OVER
   THE OH VALLEY WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES DURING THE DAY.
   A SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
   ACCELERATES THROUGH THE SERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT.

   AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER QUEBEC SWWD
   THROUGH THE NERN STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE WRN GULF
   COAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD DURING
   THE PERIOD...REACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND NRN FL BY 12Z SAT.

   ...GULF COAST REGION THROUGH CAROLINAS...

   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE
   NWRN GULF COAST AREA NEWD THROUGH THE WRN/CNTRL CAROLINAS. AT LEAST
   SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE AN ONGOING THREAT FOR MAINLY STRONG
   TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR INITIAL STRONG SWLY LLJ
   TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER JET MIGRATING ENEWD THROUGH OH VALLEY...MID
   ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES. A MOIST WARM SECTOR /UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F
   DEWPOINTS/ WILL RESIDE IN PRE-FRONTAL REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL
   EXISTS REGARDING HOW MUCH SFC DESTABILIZATION WILL
   OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG GULF COAST WHERE EARLY MORNING STORMS MIGHT
   BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MIGHT BE NEAR THE COAST OR
   OFFSHORE.

   HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FARTHER NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
   WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION MIGHT BE GREATER DURING THE DAY
   THAN FARTHER SW AS INITIAL STORMS CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS WEAKEN.
   ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM
   UPPER JET AND ITS COUPLED STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT IS FORECAST TO
   STRENGTHEN INITIALLY OVER THE GULF COAST REGION THEN NEWD THROUGH
   CNTRL/SRN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THESE PROCESSES WILL
   INCREASE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE AS WELL AS DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR
   SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING FAST
   MOVING LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. EXTENT OF
   SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL DEPEND ON TO WHAT DEGREE ANY
   PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN RETURN INLAND.

   ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES...

   AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
   IN THIS REGION WITH LOWER TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN A
   STRONGLY SHEARED...BUT WEAKLY UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.

   ..DIAL.. 03/31/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z