Jul 24, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 24 17:37:41 UTC 2016 (20160724 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160724 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160724 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 29,591 5,868,884 Springfield, MA...Waterbury, CT...Albany, NY...Danbury, CT...Scranton, PA...
MARGINAL 305,379 63,702,184 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Boston, MA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160724 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 29,601 5,815,501 Springfield, MA...Waterbury, CT...Albany, NY...Danbury, CT...Scranton, PA...
5 % 304,431 63,395,321 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Boston, MA...
   SPC AC 241737

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NORTHEAST PA...FAR
   NORTHERN NJ THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY TO WESTERN NEW
   ENGLAND....

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST
   STATES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY
   NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY WILL
   PROCEED EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING DAY 2...WHILE A MIDLEVEL
   IMPULSE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE QUEBEC TROUGH WILL
   RESULT IN 30-60-METER 12-HOUR 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH MONDAY
   AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.  A COLD FRONT
   ATTENDANT TO THE SOUTHEAST CANADA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST
   THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE
   TRAILING PORTION MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO AR AND
   OK.

   MEANWHILE...A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN LOCATED OVER
   THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.  NEUTRAL HEIGHT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON
   FOLLOWED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN MODEST WESTERLY FLOW
   ALOFT EXPECTED TO REACH THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT.

   ...NORTHEAST STATES...
   MOISTENING OF THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS PER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2 ACROSS PA/NY...
   WITH MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MUCH OF WESTERN
   AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FULL EXTENT OF
   THE WARM SECTOR AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F
   REACH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
   AN EML /700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C PER KM/ IS EXPECTED TO
   SPREAD EAST ATOP THE MOISTENING AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
   CENTRAL TO EASTERN NY AND NORTHEAST PA BETWEEN 21-00Z. ALTHOUGH
   MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION/ CLOUDINESS
   COULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING AND OVERALL
   DESTABILIZATION...MUCAPE OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED INTO THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST OF FORCING
   ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   /UP TO 40 KT/ ACROSS NY/NORTHERN PA TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING HAS RESULTED IN GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHER SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN NEW
   ENGLAND.  STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST ORGANIZED
   STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND SOME SPLITTING STORMS.  DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THE MARGINAL RISK HAS ALSO BEEN
   EXPANDED INTO MORE OF MAINE...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT INTO THAT AREA.

   ...OH VALLEY...
   STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO MONDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TO THE SOUTH. 
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE
   LACK OF STRONGER BULK SHEAR.

   ...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 F NOT EXPECTED
   TO REACH WESTERN NEB TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS UNTIL AFTER 26/00Z. 
   S-SELY SFC WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED E OF A LEE TROUGH...AND
   COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN AN UPSLOPE
   REGIME ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND PERHAPS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. 
   MODELS DIFFER IN THE COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE OF MONDAY AFTERNOON
   STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MONDAY NIGHT
   AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS INTO THIS REGION. 
   VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH MODEST WESTERLY MIDLEVEL WINDS SHOULD
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY AFTERNOON STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL
   SEVERE RISK.

   ..PETERS.. 07/24/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z