SPC AC 131717

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
   A PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS PARTS OF
   ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD AS A BELT OF
   STRENGTHENING H5 FLOW OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.  A CLOSED
   MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL OPEN AND WEAKEN AS THE
   ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE HIGH
   PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT
   WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE WRN
   ATLANTIC.  FARTHER W...A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH
   WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. 

   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NWD FROM 2 SEPARATE MOISTURE
   STREAMS 1) FROM THE GREAT LAKES 2) FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS
   SSWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.  DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER AND WEAK H7-H5
   LAPSE RATES...HEATING AND 50S AND LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY /500 J PER KG MUCAPE/ AHEAD OF THE
   APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT /DCVA/ WILL AID
   IN ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE STRENGTH OF H5 FLOW WILL SUPPORT
   SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED
   MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLD DAMAGING GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 

   ...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...
   A LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENCROACHES ON THE REGION FROM THE
   WEST.  BUOYANCY IS PROGGED TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH
   MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OVER THE CENTRAL AND
   N-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER FARTHER S OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS /1000-1500 J PER KG/.  ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS.  HOWEVER...THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SEEMINGLY DIFFUSE/MARGINAL CHARACTER OF STRONGER
   STORMS /PERHAPS CAPABLE OF ISOLD STRONG GUSTS/ LOCATED FROM NM NWD
   INTO WY PRECLUDES INTRODUCING PROBABILITIES UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE
   IN STRONGER STORM COVERAGE IS ATTAINED.

   ..SMITH.. 09/13/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z