Mar 29, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 29 07:32:45 UTC 2016 (20160329 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160329 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160329 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 141,039 11,788,408 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
MARGINAL 301,969 48,210,572 Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160329 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 140,297 11,664,760 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
5 % 303,073 48,000,439 Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...
   SPC AC 290732

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY REGION TO WRN GA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SRN LOWER MI TO
   CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER FROM
   SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE GULF COAST; HOWEVER...THE MOST
   PROBABLE AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO WESTERN GEORGIA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK SHOULD RESULT
   BY START OF THIS PERIOD IN CONJOINING OF NRN AND SRN STREAMS. 
   POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH SHOULD START PERIOD FROM MN ACROSS
   CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN CA/NRN BAJA REGION.  WITHIN THAT REGIME...ERN
   REMNANTS OF CYCLONE NOW OVER GREAT BASIN SHOULD EJECT NEWD FROM
   MN/IA/KS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKEN IN CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW. 
   THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD BECOME ILL-DEFINED FROM LH SWWD ACROSS IL
   BY 1/00Z...WHILE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SSEWD FROM WRN
   DAKOTAS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE THEN SHOULD TURN EWD
   OVER IA/MO BY 1/12Z.  BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ/NRN BAJA
   AREA SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD FAR W TX THROUGH PERIOD...REMAINING WELL
   BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT.  DOWNSTREAM FROM
   THAT...HOWEVER...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED MINOR SHORTWAVES MAY
   TRAVERSE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM ARKLATEX REGION TO CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS. 

   AT SFC...LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER SERN WI/NERN IL REGION AT
   31/12Z...MOVING NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI AND LH TO SRN/CENTRAL QUE
   THROUGH PERIOD.  TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LOWER OH
   VALLEY...MID SOUTH AND LOWER TX COAST AROUND 1/00Z...THEN ALONG
   APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS AL TO W-CENTRAL GULF BY END OF PERIOD.

   ...LOWER DELTA REGION TO CAROLINAS...
   VIGOROUS/BROAD REGIME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
   SUPPORT MULTIPLE EPISODES OF CONVECTION ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND
   SERN CONUS THROUGH PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AMIDST
   FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING AT START
   OF DAY-3 PERIOD IN BROAD SWATH FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES TO MS...MOST
   OF IT ELEVATED WITH MRGL SVR THREAT.  

   LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE MODEST ALOFT OVER MOST OF THIS REGION...GIVEN
   TWO FACTORS...
   1.  MID/UPPER-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES LACKING ROBUST EML AIR...IMPLIED BY
   POSITIVE TILT OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND EJECTING/WEAKENING NATURE
   OF LEAD SHORTWAVE.
   2.  ABUNDANT CONVECTION DAY-2 CARRYING INTO THIS PERIOD.

   HOWEVER...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR...AND GREATEST
   POTENTIAL FOR JUXTAPOSITION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT
   SHEAR IS OVER CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA.  MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND
   CONVECTIVE PROCESSES WILL STRONGLY REGULATE ACTUAL POTENTIAL WITHIN
   THIS BROAD PLUME.  COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND LACK OF APPARENT DEEP-LAYER FORCING MAKES SVR THREAT LOWER AND
   MORE UNCERTAIN EWD THROUGH CAROLINAS.

   ...MID MS VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY AND SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES...
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC
   COLD FRONT...AMIDST SHEAR FIELDS SUPPORTING SVR POTENTIAL. 
   HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAKENING OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...POTENTIALLY
   STABLE TRAJECTORIES FROM PROFUSE CONVECTION FARTHER S...AND
   LIKELIHOOD OF SOMEWHAT VEERED FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...UNCERTAINTIES
   APPEAR TOO GREAT ATTM TO DRAW OUTLOOK AREA WITH UNCONDITIONAL
   PROBABILITIES AOA 15%.  NARROW CORRIDOR OF MRGL PROBABILITIES IS
   BEING INTRODUCED...HOWEVER.

   ..EDWARDS.. 03/29/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z