SPC AC 030712
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN AND
SURROUNDING STATES...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE N
CENTRAL CONUS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS
OF ADJACENT STATES.
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEAK ERN U.S. TROUGH AT MID LEVELS SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE WRN CANADA/NWRN U.S.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED. SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN AN ENHANCED BELT OF WSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT LINGERING SWWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
MAY SUPPORT WHAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE LARGELY SUB-SEVERE STORMS.
FARTHER W...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL EXTENT FROM MN WSWWD ACROSS SD
AND INTO WY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN NEB/WRN KS AND
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...N CENTRAL CONUS...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING SEVERE-WEATHER EVOLUTION
DAY 3/TUE...AS A COMBINATION OF ONGOING/ANTECEDENT CONVECTION
COMBINED WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING LOCATIONS OF SHORT-WAVE
FEATURES IN BROAD WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING
NWRN U.S. TROUGH CAST UNCERTAINTY UPON DETAILS OF THE FORECAST.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK/LINGERING COOL FRONT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS
MENTIONED...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION PROGGED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA MAY HINDER DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...AMPLE CAPE DEVELOPMENT
FROM PARTS OF SD EWD INTO MN/NRN IA SHOULD EVENTUALLY
OCCUR...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE OF STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA. AIDED BY ENHANCED SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODERATE /35-50 KT/ MID-LEVEL WSWLYS...RISK
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED AS STRONGER
STORMS EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MORE
ISOLATED STORMS -- WITH LOCAL SEVERE RISK -- SHOULD EXTEND WWD
ACROSS SD INTO PARTS OF WY ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SWD INTO NEB/KS ALONG A WEAK N-S TROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..GOSS.. 07/03/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z