Jul 3, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 3 07:12:16 UTC 2016 (20160703 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160703 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160703 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 95,897 6,455,764 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Bloomington, MN...
MARGINAL 431,976 13,455,256 Milwaukee, WI...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160703 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 95,724 6,442,996 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Bloomington, MN...
5 % 431,632 13,443,804 Milwaukee, WI...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...
   SPC AC 030712

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN AND
   SURROUNDING STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE N
   CENTRAL CONUS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
   NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS
   OF ADJACENT STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A WEAK ERN U.S. TROUGH AT MID LEVELS SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW
   ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE WRN CANADA/NWRN U.S.
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED.  SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES
   EMBEDDED IN AN ENHANCED BELT OF WSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
   CROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT LINGERING SWWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
   MAY SUPPORT WHAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE LARGELY SUB-SEVERE STORMS. 
   FARTHER W...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL EXTENT FROM MN WSWWD ACROSS SD
   AND INTO WY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN NEB/WRN KS AND
   INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  

   ...N CENTRAL CONUS...
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING SEVERE-WEATHER EVOLUTION
   DAY 3/TUE...AS A COMBINATION OF ONGOING/ANTECEDENT CONVECTION
   COMBINED WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING LOCATIONS OF SHORT-WAVE
   FEATURES IN BROAD WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING
   NWRN U.S. TROUGH CAST UNCERTAINTY UPON DETAILS OF THE FORECAST.

   ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK/LINGERING COOL FRONT WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  AS
   MENTIONED...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION PROGGED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
   AREA MAY HINDER DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...AMPLE CAPE DEVELOPMENT
   FROM PARTS OF SD EWD INTO MN/NRN IA SHOULD EVENTUALLY
   OCCUR...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE OF STORMS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA.  AIDED BY ENHANCED SLY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODERATE /35-50 KT/ MID-LEVEL WSWLYS...RISK
   FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED AS STRONGER
   STORMS EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  MORE
   ISOLATED STORMS -- WITH LOCAL SEVERE RISK -- SHOULD EXTEND WWD
   ACROSS SD INTO PARTS OF WY ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD
   FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SWD INTO NEB/KS ALONG A WEAK N-S TROUGH DURING
   THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ..GOSS.. 07/03/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z