Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...
SPC AC 022004
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2017
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO CENTRAL AND
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE TO SOUTHERN SOUTH
Severe thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon and evening
from eastern Louisiana across much of the central Gulf Coast States
to portions of central and southern Georgia. All severe hazards
will be possible including damaging winds and tornadoes, especially
across portions of southeast Louisiana and central and southern
Mississippi through southern Alabama and the western Florida
...Lower MS Valley to central Gulf Coast States...
Early afternoon radar imagery and lightning data showed a bowing
line of storms moving into southwest MS and southeast LA, with a
second area of thunderstorms located well east of the bowing line
across southeast MS into the western FL Panhandle to central and
eastern AL, and adjacent northwest GA. The air mass across the
Slight and Enhanced severe risk areas remains moderately unstable
and sufficiently sheared for discrete rotating updrafts, primarily
with storms across the warm sector. Strengthening southerly
low-level winds across much of the Enhanced risk area with an
additional increase in midlevel flow (from the southwest to west)
will maintain favorable effective srh of 200-400 m2/s2 for a
continued tornado threat. Meanwhile, WSR-88D VWPs indicated
strengthening westerly inflow jet into the bowing line of storms,
supportive of a continued likelihood for damaging winds from central
and southern MS to southern AL this afternoon and evening. The
western extent of the severe probabilities and categorical risk
areas have been trimmed east to account for the progressive eastward
The tornado probabilities have been reduced some across northern AL
into TN, where storms should tend to remain elevated.
...Central and southern GA into southern SC...
A destabilizing air mass along and south of the wedge front combined
with strengthening southwesterly 500-mb flow, given the approach of
the lower MS Valley shortwave trough suggests any storms developing
within this region will have the potential to become severe. Given
these factors and model indication for storms in southern AL and the
FL Panhandle to develop to the east-northeast into Georgia this
evening, the severe probabilities and categorical Slight and
Marginal risk areas have been expanded to the east.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2017/
...Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley...
Considerable strong/severe convection is moving eastward across
western Louisiana and extreme southeast Texas, in advance of a
strong upper short-wave trough progressing eastward over central
Texas. Embedded within the cluster is a bowing line segment that
has been producing occasional wind damage reports this morning.
Additional storms are continuing downstream from this activity over
eastern Mississippi and western/northern Alabama, in association
with a weaker short-wave trough and within a coupled upper-level jet
structure where divergence aloft is maximized. This activity is
resulting in widespread cloud cover that will likely limit diurnal
heating and destabilization north of the I-20 corridor.
Surface analysis and visible satellite imagery indicate an east-west
coastal warm front extending from southwest Louisiana into the
northwest Florida, with richer low-level moisture /surface dew
points around 70 degrees/ and warmer temperatures to the south of
the front. This boundary may lift farther north this afternoon but
substantial progress inland will likely be impeded by ongoing
convection and clouds.
Current indications are the eastward-moving QLCS over western
Louisiana will progress across the lower Mississippi Valley this
afternoon with a continuing threat for primarily damaging wind
gusts. Several tornadoes will also be possible, especially with any
embedded rotational couplets that may develop and near the
intersection of the advancing QLCS and the warm front. In addition,
any persistent semi-discrete cells developing downstream from the
line may also pose a tornado threat given the clockwise-turning
low-level hodographs evident in recent VAD profiles at LCH, LIX, and
Other severe storms will be possible northward into parts of the
Tennessee Valley where strong vertical shear may compensate for
weaker instability. A few damaging wind gusts and marginally severe
hail will be the primary threats.
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