Jan 7, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 7 00:52:00 UTC 2017 (20170107 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170107 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170107 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 12,472 3,711,528 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Gainesville, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170107 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 4,674 2,474,019 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Largo, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170107 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 12,491 3,708,213 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Gainesville, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170107 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 7,469 911,496 Gainesville, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Bayonet Point, FL...Jasmine Estates, FL...New Port Richey, FL...
   SPC AC 070052

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0652 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2017

   Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE COASTAL BEND OF FLORIDA INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong thunderstorms could affect the Gulf Coast of Florida
   from the coastal bend to the Tampa Bay area this evening and
   overnight.

   ...Coastal Bend of Florida/Tampa Bay Area...
   The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving
   through the southern Plains.  West to southwest mid-level flow is
   located over the Gulf Coast States with an area of mid-level
   moisture from the central Gulf Coast extending northeastward into
   the Carolinas and eastward to the western Florida Peninsula. A large
   area of rainfall is located in the Gulf Coast States with
   thunderstorm activity over the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
   At the surface, a 1009 mb low is analyzed about 200 statute miles
   south of Mobile with a cold front extending northeastward away from
   the low across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. Surface
   dewpoints ahead of the front across northern Florida are in lower
   60s F with the RAP estimating MUCAPE of 500 to 700 J/kg from
   southeast of Tallahassee southward along the coast to just north of
   Tampa Bay.

   In addition, 0-6 km shear values along this portion of the coast are
   estimated in the 45 to 55 kt range which was confirmed by the Tampa
   Bay 00Z sounding. Although the Tampa Bay sounding didn't look
   supportive of severe storms, the environment is more favorable
   northward along the coast to west of Gainesville where low-level
   flow is forecast to strengthen over the next few hours. This along
   with the instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear could
   be enough for storm rotation within cells that can remain
   semi-discrete.  A marginal wind damage and/or hail threat may
   accompany the stronger cells that move across the coast and inland
   into northern Florida this evening. The marginal severe threat could
   eventually reach the Tampa Bay area during the overnight period as
   instability and low-level flow strengthen ahead of the cold front.

   ..Broyles.. 01/07/2017

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