Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Gainesville, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
4,674
2,474,019
Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Largo, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
12,491
3,708,213
Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Gainesville, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
7,469
911,496
Gainesville, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Bayonet Point, FL...Jasmine Estates, FL...New Port Richey, FL...
SPC AC 070052
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2017
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE COASTAL BEND OF FLORIDA INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms could affect the Gulf Coast of Florida
from the coastal bend to the Tampa Bay area this evening and
overnight.
...Coastal Bend of Florida/Tampa Bay Area...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving
through the southern Plains. West to southwest mid-level flow is
located over the Gulf Coast States with an area of mid-level
moisture from the central Gulf Coast extending northeastward into
the Carolinas and eastward to the western Florida Peninsula. A large
area of rainfall is located in the Gulf Coast States with
thunderstorm activity over the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
At the surface, a 1009 mb low is analyzed about 200 statute miles
south of Mobile with a cold front extending northeastward away from
the low across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. Surface
dewpoints ahead of the front across northern Florida are in lower
60s F with the RAP estimating MUCAPE of 500 to 700 J/kg from
southeast of Tallahassee southward along the coast to just north of
Tampa Bay.
In addition, 0-6 km shear values along this portion of the coast are
estimated in the 45 to 55 kt range which was confirmed by the Tampa
Bay 00Z sounding. Although the Tampa Bay sounding didn't look
supportive of severe storms, the environment is more favorable
northward along the coast to west of Gainesville where low-level
flow is forecast to strengthen over the next few hours. This along
with the instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear could
be enough for storm rotation within cells that can remain
semi-discrete. A marginal wind damage and/or hail threat may
accompany the stronger cells that move across the coast and inland
into northern Florida this evening. The marginal severe threat could
eventually reach the Tampa Bay area during the overnight period as
instability and low-level flow strengthen ahead of the cold front.
..Broyles.. 01/07/2017
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z