Feb 8, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 8 16:30:53 UTC 2017 (20170208 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170208 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170208 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 70,289 15,546,196 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Knoxville, TN...Chattanooga, TN...
MARGINAL 187,175 22,989,946 Jacksonville, FL...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170208 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 42,019 9,487,908 Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Knoxville, TN...Chattanooga, TN...Sandy Springs, GA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170208 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 70,716 15,612,724 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Knoxville, TN...Chattanooga, TN...
5 % 186,745 22,912,417 Jacksonville, FL...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170208 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 41,902 9,290,829 Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Knoxville, TN...Chattanooga, TN...Sandy Springs, GA...
5 % 215,922 29,250,398 Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
   SPC AC 081630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1030 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2017

   Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
   FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early
   evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern
   Appalachians, continuing eastward into the Carolinas and southern
   Virginia tonight.

   ...Tennessee Valley this afternoon to the Carolinas overnight...
   A weak surface cyclone now near Texarkana will move
   east-northeastward toward the central Appalachians by this evening,
   and then deepen rapidly tonight near the Mid Atlantic coast.  A
   trailing cold front will surge southeastward across the TN and lower
   MS Valleys by early tonight, and the front will approach the
   southeast Atlantic coast by the end of the period.  The cyclone will
   precede an amplifying midlevel trough that will progress from the
   central Plains to the TN/OH Valleys, as well as a lead speed max now
   over OK that will reach the TN Valley this evening.  

   A residual moist boundary layer across the lower MS Valley this
   morning will spread northeastward in advance of the surface
   cyclone/cold front.  Some cloud breaks later this afternoon and
   boundary layer dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s will support
   weak-moderate buoyancy ahead of the front (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg).
   Thunderstorm development is expected in the 21-00z time frame across
   central KY and middle TN, with convection subsequently developing
   southward into northeast MS/AL along the southern edge of the
   stronger height falls/forcing for ascent.  Vertical shear profiles
   will support supercells with a risk for damaging winds/large hail,
   some of which could persist overnight into the Carolinas.

   ..Thompson/Kerr.. 02/08/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z