SPC AC 131942

   Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

   Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms and isolated severe weather are possible
   this evening and overnight in parts of the Edwards Plateau, nearby 
   Hill Country and Rio Grande Valley, and south-central Texas.

   No changes were necessary to the previous outlook.

   ..Jewell.. 02/13/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level low along the AZ/NM/international border region will be
   the primary impetus for the severe weather threat across Texas. 
   This low will move steadily eastward through the forecast period
   while evolving into an open wave.  50-60 knot southwesterly flow
   aloft will develop immediately downstream of this feature and spread
   across much of the southern Plains today.  At the surface, a warm
   front currently analyzed from near VCT to near COT will migrate
   further inland across southern and central Texas, spreading low 60s
   dewpoints inland across central Texas this evening.  A weak surface
   low will develop near the Rio Grande River Valley, while surface
   ridging will remain intact across west Texas and Eastern New Mexico.

   ...Southern and Central Texas...
   Mostly elevated convection persists this morning in west Texas
   southward to near DRT.  Continued warm advection atop the
   aforementioned surface ridge will foster areas of 500-1000 J/kg
   MUCAPE rooted above 850mb particularly across south-central Texas. 
   This instability, combined with cooling mid-level temps (in
   association with the approaching mid-level low) and associated
   forcing for ascent will result in a few instances of hail
   approaching severe limits.

   Farther east, continued low-level warm advection will increase
   tonight in conjunction with a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet. 
   Capping will be weak today, and low to mid 60s dewpoints will foster
   some surface-based instability.  A conditional threat of surface
   based convection will exist from early-mid afternoon through the end
   of the forecast period, with weak to moderate instability and shear
   profiles supportive of updraft rotation in any isolated convection
   that can develop.  Marginal hail/wind probabilities have been
   maintained to address this threat, and marginal tornado
   probabilities have also been added to this outlook.  

   Overnight, models suggest potential for a linear convective complex
   across central Texas.  Weak instability will be a primary limiting
   factor for a more appreciable severe weather threat, but supercell
   wind shear profiles and near-surface based convection will continue
   to support a marginal risk of wind gusts and perhaps a tornado
   through the end of the forecast period.

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