Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 240059
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Showers and thunderstorms -- a few of which may produce hail that
approaches or even reaches marginal severe levels -- are expected
from northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska northeastward across
parts of northern Missouri and Iowa this evening and overnight.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will continue to shift gradually eastward across
the central Plains this evening/overnight, while an associated
surface low now over southwest Kansas moves east-northeast, reaching
the northeast Missouri/west-central Illinois vicinity by the end of
the period. A warm front extending east from the low will gradually
shift northward across the Midwest, while a trailing cold front
advances southeastward across the southern Plains overnight.
...Parts of northern Kansas and southeast Nebraska northeast across
Iowa and northern Missouri...
Latest radar loop shows widespread rain/rain showers from Nebraska
eastward into the upper Great Lakes region, with scattered/elevated
thunderstorms developing on the southern fringe of this area of
precipitation -- i.e. from north central Kansas and parts of
southeast Nebraska into Iowa. The convection is occurring in a zone
of strong quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent ahead of the
advancing upper system and north of the surface warm front, where
several hundred J/kg elevated CAPE exists per model forecast
soundings and extrapolation of evening RAOBs.
Given the degree of elevated CAPE, in conjunction with strong
southwesterly flow at mid levels supporting favorable cloud-layer
shear, a few stronger storms will likely evolve from time to time
this evening and into the overnight hours. Small hail -- possibly
nearing or exceeding severe levels with a couple of the strongest
updrafts -- can be expected, with the risk area shifting
northeastward with time across the mid-Missouri valley area.
...Elsewhere...
Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to persist across parts
of Ohio and Pennsylvania, and later into New York state. Weak
instability precludes any appreciable severe risk.
..Goss.. 02/24/2017
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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