Feb 25, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 25 16:13:23 UTC 2017 (20170225 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170225 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170225 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 93,336 38,172,876 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...
MARGINAL 65,242 19,263,080 Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Bridgeport, CT...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170225 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 62,177 25,172,979 Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Norfolk, VA...Richmond, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170225 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 92,926 37,416,972 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...
5 % 65,260 19,923,613 Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Bridgeport, CT...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170225 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 76,641 27,223,917 Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...
   SPC AC 251613

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1013 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

   Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NY
   SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NC...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NY/VT
   SOUTHWARD INTO NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and some hail are
   forecast from New York and western New England southward to North
   Carolina this afternoon.

   ...NY/VT into NC...
   A strong upper trough is rotating across the mid MS and OH valleys
   today, with the associated surface cold front extending from western
   NY/PA southward into western NC.  A band of showers and isolated
   thunderstorms is present ahead of the front.  This activity is
   moving into an area where breaks in the clouds and dewpoints in the
   50s will yield marginal CAPE values and the potential for
   intensification.  Strong winds aloft and focused forcing along the
   front, coupled with model consensus of a broken squall line later
   today, suggest a risk of a few storms intensifying to severe levels
   this afternoon.  Fast-moving bowing structures capable of locally
   damaging winds would be the main threat, although hail may also
   occur in the strongest cores.

   ..Hart/Leitman.. 02/25/2017

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