SPC AC 070054

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0654 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

   Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
   PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   REGION...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
   KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH A PORTION OF THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
   KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are expected until mid evening over the upper
   Mississippi Valley area. Other severe storms will persist into the
   overnight across the middle to lower Mississippi Valley region and a
   portion of eastern Kansas into Oklahoma. Damaging wind, large hail
   and a few tornadoes are expected, but the dominant threat should
   transition to damaging wind later tonight.

   ...Eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into the Mississippi Valley region...


   Squall line currently western WI through IA into northeast KS will
   continue to pose a threat for severe weather as it continues east
   tonight including large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes.
   Instability corridor is narrow over the upper MS Valley region, and
   storms will likely weaken toward mid evening as they move farther
   into WI. 

   Farther south, the severe threat will likely persist into the
   overnight and early morning. Storms should continue to backbuild
   along southeastward-advancing cold front through the remainder of
   eastern KS into eastern OK. A strong mid-level jet rotating through
   the base of a northeastward-ejecting upper trough coupled with an
   intensifying southwesterly low-level jet is contributing to very
   favorable vertical shear profiles and large 0-1 km hodographs
   supportive of organized storms. Embedded supercell and bowing
   structures are likely as the line develops through eastern Kansas
   and Oklahoma and eventually into MO and AR, and this activity will
   pose a threat for mainly damaging wind and large hail, with a few
   tornadoes also possible. Additional more discrete storms may develop
   within the low-level confluent flow regime across northern AR into
   MO this evening. Some of these storms may evolve into supercells
   with a threat for large hail and a few tornadoes.

   ..Dial.. 03/07/2017

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