Mar 12, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 12 19:31:32 UTC 2017 (20170312 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170312 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170312 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170312 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170312 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170312 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 121931

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017

   Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida peninsula
   today, with isolated thunderstorms also possible across parts of the
   Plains later this afternoon and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are
   not expected.

   ...Discussion...
   With current forecast reasoning and areal outlines still
   representative of the expected convective evolution, no changes to
   the current forecast are necessary.

   ..Goss.. 03/12/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   Gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern will ensue as a
   midlevel shortwave trough digs southeastward from the northern High
   Plains toward the central Plains and middle MS Valley with an
   accompanying surface cyclone.  Though moisture will remain marginal
   in the warm sector of this system, steepening low-midlevel lapse
   rates will drive weak buoyancy this afternoon into this evening
   across the central High Plains.  Isolated low-topped thunderstorms
   will be possible where ascent preceding the midlevel wave and
   surface cold front.  Convection may linger into the early overnight
   hours in conjunction with low-level warm advection precedes the cold
   front approaching western OK and vicinity.

   Otherwise, primarily diurnal convection is expected along a
   slow-moving front across north FL, and in association with weak sea
   breeze circulations across the central/eastern peninsula.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z