Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 121931
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida peninsula
today, with isolated thunderstorms also possible across parts of the
Plains later this afternoon and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are
not expected.
...Discussion...
With current forecast reasoning and areal outlines still
representative of the expected convective evolution, no changes to
the current forecast are necessary.
..Goss.. 03/12/2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017/
...Synopsis...
Gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern will ensue as a
midlevel shortwave trough digs southeastward from the northern High
Plains toward the central Plains and middle MS Valley with an
accompanying surface cyclone. Though moisture will remain marginal
in the warm sector of this system, steepening low-midlevel lapse
rates will drive weak buoyancy this afternoon into this evening
across the central High Plains. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms
will be possible where ascent preceding the midlevel wave and
surface cold front. Convection may linger into the early overnight
hours in conjunction with low-level warm advection precedes the cold
front approaching western OK and vicinity.
Otherwise, primarily diurnal convection is expected along a
slow-moving front across north FL, and in association with weak sea
breeze circulations across the central/eastern peninsula.
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