Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 140448
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous U.S. today and
tonight.
...Synopsis...
As upper ridging persists over much of the western CONUS, a highly
amplified upper trough with several embedded shortwave troughs over
the eastern CONUS will develop into a closed low over New England
and the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. A surface low very
near the Delmarva coast around 12Z this morning will develop
northeastward to the vicinity of Cape Cod MA by 15/00Z while rapidly
deepening. An attendant cold front will continue southward across
the remainder of the FL peninsula, moving offshore and over the
Florida Straits by mid-morning. Surface high pressure and stable
conditions will dominate most of the western/central CONUS through
the period. Very isolated lightning strikes may occur near coastal
NY/CT/RI/MA this afternoon in association with strong low-level warm
air advection and forcing for ascent with the upper trough. However,
thunderstorm coverage across this region is forecast to remain too
sparse (less than 10%) due to negligible instability to warrant the
inclusion of a general thunderstorm area.
..Gleason.. 03/14/2017
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z