Mar 14, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 14 04:48:24 UTC 2017 (20170314 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170314 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170314 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170314 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170314 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170314 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 140448

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous U.S. today and
   tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   As upper ridging persists over much of the western CONUS, a highly
   amplified upper trough with several embedded shortwave troughs over
   the eastern CONUS will develop into a closed low over New England
   and the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. A surface low very
   near the Delmarva coast around 12Z this morning will develop
   northeastward to the vicinity of Cape Cod MA by 15/00Z while rapidly
   deepening. An attendant cold front will continue southward across
   the remainder of the FL peninsula, moving offshore and over the
   Florida Straits by mid-morning. Surface high pressure and stable
   conditions will dominate most of the western/central CONUS through
   the period. Very isolated lightning strikes may occur near coastal
   NY/CT/RI/MA this afternoon in association with strong low-level warm
   air advection and forcing for ascent with the upper trough. However,
   thunderstorm coverage across this region is forecast to remain too
   sparse (less than 10%) due to negligible instability to warrant the
   inclusion of a general thunderstorm area.

   ..Gleason.. 03/14/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z