Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 181602
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS...
Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds will
be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of Virginia and
...Virginia into the Carolinas...
The latest visible satellite loop shows rapid clearing is occurring
across the Mid-Atlantic region. This will help to destabilize the
air mass across parts of central VA/NC and northern SC, as well as
result in steep low-level lapse rates. Moisture is limited across
this area. However, relatively strong forcing will approach this
corridor this afternoon as a well-defined shortwave trough moves
across WV/KY/TN and into the region. Model solutions are in
agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop from northern VA
into northern NC, while another cluster of storms forms farther
south near the NC/SC border. Forecast soundings suggest parameters
favorable for hail in the stronger cores. Also, more favorable
moisture/instability and stronger low-level wind speeds over the
southern half of the risk area suggests some risk of gusty/damaging
wind gusts as well. This severe threat should diminish within a
couple hours after sunset.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z