Mar 18, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 18 16:02:03 UTC 2017 (20170318 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170318 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170318 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 38,910 6,010,834 Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Cary, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170318 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170318 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 17,321 3,969,673 Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Cary, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170318 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 38,853 5,981,287 Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Cary, NC...
   SPC AC 181602

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1102 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

   Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds will
   be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of Virginia and
   the Carolinas

   ...Virginia into the Carolinas...
   The latest visible satellite loop shows rapid clearing is occurring
   across the Mid-Atlantic region.  This will help to destabilize the
   air mass across parts of central VA/NC and northern SC, as well as
   result in steep low-level lapse rates.  Moisture is limited across
   this area.  However, relatively strong forcing will approach this
   corridor this afternoon as a well-defined shortwave trough moves
   across WV/KY/TN and into the region.  Model solutions are in
   agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop from northern VA
   into northern NC, while another cluster of storms forms farther
   south near the NC/SC border.  Forecast soundings suggest parameters
   favorable for hail in the stronger cores.  Also, more favorable
   moisture/instability and stronger low-level wind speeds over the
   southern half of the risk area suggests some risk of gusty/damaging
   wind gusts as well.  This severe threat should diminish within a
   couple hours after sunset.

   ..Hart/Dean.. 03/18/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z