Mar 31, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 31 15:57:26 UTC 2017 (20170331 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170331 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170331 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 37,607 4,621,390 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...Newport News, VA...
MARGINAL 61,852 7,556,468 Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Cary, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170331 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 34,090 4,536,070 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...Newport News, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170331 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 37,562 4,609,459 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...Newport News, VA...
5 % 32,235 7,154,484 Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Cary, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170331 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 25,956 3,753,357 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...Newport News, VA...
5 % 58,065 5,259,448 Raleigh, NC...Durham, NC...Cary, NC...Roanoke, VA...Greenville, NC...
   SPC AC 311557

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1057 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

   Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   VA/NC...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, isolated large hail,
   and perhaps a tornado, are expected today across North Carolina and
   Virginia.  Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible tonight
   across parts of western Kansas/Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma
   Panhandles.

   ...NC/VA...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a large upper trough moving across
   the OH valley, with two embedded shortwave troughs moving across
   VA/NC.  The first system is over central NC, and is aiding the
   organization of showers and thunderstorms now affecting eastern NC. 
   These storms continue to slowly intensify, and there is some risk of
   isolated wind damage before they move offshore.  This threat should
   diminish by 20z.

   By early afternoon, storms ahead of the second shortwave trough (now
   over western VA) will begin to strengthen.  This activity will
   affect parts of south-central/southeast VA and northeast NC during
   the afternoon and evening.  Partial sunshine behind the lead wave
   will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and promote
   gusty/damaging winds.  Strong deep-layer shear may result in a few
   supercell structures, capable of a tornado or two and/or hail.  This
   threat should move offshore shortly after sunset.

   ...KS/OK/TX...
   Elevated CAPE is forecast to develop tonight over parts of the
   central High Plains.  Meanwhile, weak lift associated with the next
   upper trough over the southwest states will begin to overspread the
   region.  A consensus of model solutions indicate that shallow
   precipitation will form, but offer little confidence that robust
   thunderstorms will develop in this area.  Nevertheless, if the
   approaching lift becomes sufficient to result in thunderstorms,
   there would be a conditional risk of hail.

   ..Hart/Broyles.. 03/31/2017

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