Apr 3, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 3 16:21:47 UTC 2017 (20170403 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170403 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170403 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 51,723 5,370,542 Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...Warner Robins, GA...Sumter, SC...
SLIGHT 62,351 12,275,622 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Fayetteville, NC...
MARGINAL 207,717 30,013,880 Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170403 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 28,824 3,153,600 Columbia, SC...Greenville, SC...Sumter, SC...Aiken, SC...Martinez, GA...
2 % 65,128 10,010,951 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170403 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 51,514 5,375,117 Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...Warner Robins, GA...Sumter, SC...
15 % 63,193 12,515,493 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Greensboro, NC...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...
5 % 207,020 29,686,309 Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170403 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 25,193 2,143,014 Savannah, GA...Hinesville, GA...Aiken, SC...Martinez, GA...Statesboro, GA...
5 % 171,938 21,427,041 Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...St. Louis, MO...Louisville, KY...
   SPC AC 031621

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE FL PANHANDLE...MUCH OF GA...AND MUCH OF SC...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FL INTO
   NC...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE LOWER OH AND MID MS VALLEY REGION....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible from the
   northeast Gulf coast into parts of the Carolinas through this
   evening.  Isolated strong storms are possible over the middle
   Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys this afternoon.

   ...GA/SC/NC...
   A long-lived squall line continues to track eastward across western
   GA, southeast AL, and the western FL Panhandle.  The air mass ahead
   of the line is slowly warming/moistening, with afternoon MLCAPE
   values of around 1000 J/kg. Strong low-level wind fields and
   steepening low-level lapse rates will promote the risk of locally
   damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of the line.  Also,
   strong low-level shear and mesoscale organization of the line
   supports a risk of a few QLCS tornadoes this afternoon.

   Recent radar trends and most 12z models also show a few
   thunderstorms developing today in the warm sector ahead of the line
   over eastern GA and parts of SC.  Local VAD profiles and forecast
   soundings show ample low-level shear - supportive of supercells and
   even a few tornadoes.  Model guidance suggests that the number of
   robust cells in this environment will probably be low, but there is
   some concern of a discrete supercell or two capable of tornadoes
   this afternoon.

   ...OH/MS Valley Region...
   Breaks in the clouds are slowly increasing across parts of AR/MO in
   vicinity of an upper low.  Later this afternoon, at least marginal
   CAPE values and cold temperatures aloft will promote the risk of a
   few strong cells capable of hail and/or damaging winds.  At this
   time, the risk is expected to remain isolated and marginal.

   ..Hart/Bunting.. 04/03/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z