Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Baltimore, MD...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...
SPC AC 061612
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NC/VA/MD INTO DE/NJ...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH FL...
Isolated severe storms with damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a
tornado will be possible through early afternoon across the
Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. A marginal wind risk will
diminish slowly this morning across central Florida.
...Mid Atlantic Region...
An intense negatively-tilted shortwave trough over the Carolinas
will lift rapidly northward today, resulting in strong upper forcing
for vertical motion to overspread the Mid-Atlantic region into New
England. Thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning along/ahead
of the primary cold front moving across NC/VA, but overall storm
intensities have been modest. Dense clouds ahead of the convection
and limited time for further moisture advection will likely limit
the severe threat. Nevertheless, the approach of the upper trough
and intense wind fields aloft suggest a continued risk of locally
damaging winds or perhaps a tornado until the storms move across the
Chesapeake Bay and into increasingly stable surface conditions.
...Southern New England...
As the convection spreads northeastward into southern New England,
model forecast soundings suggest a substantial low-level inversion
will be maintained over parts of MA/RI/CT. However, strong ascent
and cool temperatures aloft will result in a pocket of elevated CAPE
sufficient to warrant a marginal risk of hail in the strongest
Thunderstorms continue to track slowly southeastward across the
southern FL Peninsula. Most model guidance suggests the storms will
slowly weaken through the day. However, ample low level moisture
and moderate CAPE values indicate some conditional risk of gusty
winds in the strongest cells.
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