Apr 14, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 14 00:46:36 UTC 2017 (20170414 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170414 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170414 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170414 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170414 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170414 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 140046

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017

   Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Small hail and gusty winds will remain possible with a few storms
   across northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma through this
   evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the southern and central
   Plains are occurring mainly within a low-level warm air advection
   regime as a weak shortwave trough translates northeastward from
   western KS to eastern NE/SD by the end of the period. Periodic
   instances of stronger cells in northwest TX have been noted through
   the afternoon and early evening on the southern flank of a large
   area of precipitation across western/central OK. Already weak
   instability (MLCAPE around/below 500 J/kg) should further diminish
   with the loss of diurnal heating and with poor mid-level lapse rates
   forecast to remain in areas where convection is ongoing. In
   addition, both low and mid-level shear are modest (0-1 km shear
   around 10-20 kt and 0-6 km shear around 20-30 kt per recent
   KFDR/KDYX VWPs), and they should remain barely supportive of weak
   updraft organization. While a very isolated instance of gusty winds
   or hail cannot be completely ruled out across northwest TX into
   southwest OK through the remainder of this evening, the overall
   threat continues to be too limited to justify even marginal severe
   probabilities.

   Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across the
   Northwest tonight in association with a northeastward-moving upper
   trough, and across SC in the vicinity of a weak cold front. In both
   regions, instability will be inadequate to support any meaningful
   severe threat.

   ..Gleason.. 04/14/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z