Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 140046
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Small hail and gusty winds will remain possible with a few storms
across northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma through this
evening.
...Synopsis...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the southern and central
Plains are occurring mainly within a low-level warm air advection
regime as a weak shortwave trough translates northeastward from
western KS to eastern NE/SD by the end of the period. Periodic
instances of stronger cells in northwest TX have been noted through
the afternoon and early evening on the southern flank of a large
area of precipitation across western/central OK. Already weak
instability (MLCAPE around/below 500 J/kg) should further diminish
with the loss of diurnal heating and with poor mid-level lapse rates
forecast to remain in areas where convection is ongoing. In
addition, both low and mid-level shear are modest (0-1 km shear
around 10-20 kt and 0-6 km shear around 20-30 kt per recent
KFDR/KDYX VWPs), and they should remain barely supportive of weak
updraft organization. While a very isolated instance of gusty winds
or hail cannot be completely ruled out across northwest TX into
southwest OK through the remainder of this evening, the overall
threat continues to be too limited to justify even marginal severe
probabilities.
Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across the
Northwest tonight in association with a northeastward-moving upper
trough, and across SC in the vicinity of a weak cold front. In both
regions, instability will be inadequate to support any meaningful
severe threat.
..Gleason.. 04/14/2017
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