Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 011616
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Mon May 01 2017
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NY TO WESTERN
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NY TO SAVANNAH
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST STATES
Scattered to numerous strong to severe storms are expected into this
evening with damaging winds and a few tornadoes, most likely from
western/central New York southward into the Carolinas.
...NY to the Carolinas...
Broken clusters of showers with embedded isolated storms are ongoing
along a cold front from the Upper OH Valley to GA. Given the
meridional flow pattern, mid-level lapse rates were weak in regional
12Z observed soundings. In conjunction with pronounced downstream
cloud coverage, buoyancy will remain limited with MLCAPE largely
below 750 J/kg north of SC.
A mid-level vorticity maxima ejecting northeast across the Upper OH
Valley should decay through this afternoon, but provide sufficient
large-scale ascent to aid in increasing storm coverage across parts
of WV into western PA/NY. Nearly unidirectional and quite strong
wind profiles should support evolution to northeastward-accelerating
linear bands with embedded bows across the northern Appalachians
vicinity. Damaging wind swaths should be the primary hazard, but
50-60 kt 850-mb winds should foster the risk for a few tornadoes
from QLCS-related mesovortices and embedded supercells.
While large-scale ascent will be weaker with southern extent towards
upstate/Piedmont regions of the Carolinas, the overall
thermodynamic/kinematic environment should be similar and yield a
mixed mode of a few semi-discrete supercells and linear clusters.
Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will be possible.
The eastern extent of the risk towards the coastal plains of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic should wane tonight owing to a lack of
greater warm-sector instability.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z