May 1, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 1 16:16:39 UTC 2017 (20170501 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170501 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170501 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 100,154 14,415,363 Pittsburgh, PA...Buffalo, NY...Greensboro, NC...Rochester, NY...Winston-Salem, NC...
SLIGHT 101,687 24,917,650 Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Raleigh, NC...Durham, NC...
MARGINAL 124,009 26,264,389 Philadelphia, PA...Newark, NJ...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Akron, OH...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170501 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 90,260 13,842,606 Pittsburgh, PA...Buffalo, NY...Greensboro, NC...Rochester, NY...Winston-Salem, NC...
2 % 119,297 26,290,072 Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Raleigh, NC...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170501 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 100,190 14,429,899 Pittsburgh, PA...Buffalo, NY...Greensboro, NC...Rochester, NY...Winston-Salem, NC...
15 % 101,705 24,918,597 Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Raleigh, NC...Durham, NC...
5 % 123,961 26,247,031 Philadelphia, PA...Virginia Beach, VA...Newark, NJ...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170501 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 98,055 15,202,793 Charlotte, NC...Pittsburgh, PA...Buffalo, NY...Greensboro, NC...Rochester, NY...
   SPC AC 011616

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CDT Mon May 01 2017

   Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NY TO WESTERN
   NC...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NY TO SAVANNAH
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST STATES
   TO GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous strong to severe storms are expected into this
   evening with damaging winds and a few tornadoes, most likely from
   western/central New York southward into the Carolinas.

   ...NY to the Carolinas...
   Broken clusters of showers with embedded isolated storms are ongoing
   along a cold front from the Upper OH Valley to GA. Given the
   meridional flow pattern, mid-level lapse rates were weak in regional
   12Z observed soundings. In conjunction with pronounced downstream
   cloud coverage, buoyancy will remain limited with MLCAPE largely
   below 750 J/kg north of SC. 

   A mid-level vorticity maxima ejecting northeast across the Upper OH
   Valley should decay through this afternoon, but provide sufficient
   large-scale ascent to aid in increasing storm coverage across parts
   of WV into western PA/NY. Nearly unidirectional and quite strong
   wind profiles should support evolution to northeastward-accelerating
   linear bands with embedded bows across the northern Appalachians
   vicinity. Damaging wind swaths should be the primary hazard, but
   50-60 kt 850-mb winds should foster the risk for a few tornadoes
   from QLCS-related mesovortices and embedded supercells. 

   While large-scale ascent will be weaker with southern extent towards
   upstate/Piedmont regions of the Carolinas, the overall
   thermodynamic/kinematic environment should be similar and yield a
   mixed mode of a few semi-discrete supercells and linear clusters.
   Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will be possible.
   The eastern extent of the risk towards the coastal plains of the
   Northeast/Mid-Atlantic should wane tonight owing to a lack of
   greater warm-sector instability.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/01/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z