Altus, OK...Vernon, TX...Elk City, OK...Clinton, OK...
SLIGHT
212,121
9,992,554
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
MARGINAL
239,177
35,667,175
Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 %
15,797
157,367
Altus, OK...Vernon, TX...Elk City, OK...Clinton, OK...
5 %
27,553
633,798
Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Pampa, TX...Borger, TX...
2 %
211,997
10,344,508
Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Des Moines, IA...Amarillo, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
173,883
8,972,983
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
5 %
228,523
21,252,625
Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
16,005
155,512
Altus, OK...Pampa, TX...Vernon, TX...Elk City, OK...Clinton, OK...
30 %
15,124
149,437
Altus, OK...Vernon, TX...Elk City, OK...Clinton, OK...
15 %
210,370
10,046,639
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
5 %
241,516
34,836,561
Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
SPC AC 100548
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TX TO THE OH VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to concentrate along a
corridor from the southern Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley.
Strongest activity should focus across parts of northwest Texas into
southwest Oklahoma where very large hail and a few tornadoes are
possible.
...Southern/Central Plains...
High-level flow appears to have translated into the southeast
quadrant of an upper low positioned over southern AZ early this
morning. This evolution suggests the low will soon eject into the
southern Rockies and late evening model guidance supports this with
the center of the upper low expected into east-central NM by 11/00z.
Prior to this ejection, a cluster of strong thunderstorms has
developed across the high Plains from southeast NM into the southern
TX Panhandle. Large-scale pattern would suggest this complex of
storms will propagate across the TX Panhandle into south-central KS
during the day aided by strong southwesterly mid-high level flow.
In its wake, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the TX
South Plains and a well-defined dryline should advect/mix to just
east of the Cap Rock by peak heating. It appears immediate
pre-dryline warm sector will become fairly unstable by mid afternoon
as western edge of maritime tropical air mass is drawn northwest
into southwest OK/northwest TX. 10/00z sounding at FWD exhibited PW
on the order of 1.5 inches with a mean mixing ratio of 12.3 g/kg.
Given an undisturbed reservoir of moisture across much of TX it
appears the dryline will become quite unstable by afternoon and CINH
should be negligible by 21z. If aforementioned early-day cluster of
storms ejects across the Panhandle as expected, a
southwest-northeast oriented outflow boundary could be draped across
northwest OK into the TX Panhandle. This boundary could also serve
to focus thunderstorm development, especially across the southern
Panhandle where surface heating will be maximized. For these
reasons have introduced an ENH risk of severe for the potential for
supercells during the afternoon/evening hours. Very large hail may
accompany this activity and a few tornadoes should be noted as well.
Scattered severe thunderstorms may also develop across the upslope
region of southern CO by early evening. These storms will be
strongly sheared but boundary layer may not be especially warm.
Even so, supercells are possible with convection that evolves off
the high terrain.
...Mid MS Valley...
Upper ridge is expected to flatten across the mid MS Valley today as
flow increases within the base of SK/MB upper trough. This feature
will force a cold front to a position from southeast IA into
northeast KS by mid afternoon. Richer moisture is expected to
advance northward into this region as LLJ strengthens from the
southern Plains into eastern IA. Latest model guidance suggest
modest instability will develop immediately south of the front and
boundary layer temperatures should warm enough for a convectively
active front. Deep-layer shear will be more than adequate for
sustaining organized updrafts capable of evolving into thunderstorm
clusters, though a few supercells can not be ruled out. Large hail
and damaging winds are the primary threats.
..Darrow/Gleason.. 05/10/2017
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z