Oklahoma City, OK...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Des Moines, IA...Olathe, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
SPC AC 161623
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
Multiple clusters of severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and tonight within a swath from west Texas across the
central Plains to the western Corn Belt and mid Missouri Valley.
Tornadoes, severe gusts, and large, damaging hail are expected
within this corridor. The greatest threat of a strong tornado or
two appears to be focused over parts of western Oklahoma and the
eastern Texas Panhandle.
Morning water vapor loop shows a deep trough over the western
states, with a leading shortwave impulse rotating across NM. 12z
model solutions remain consistent that a cluster of intense
thunderstorms will develop by mid afternoon over parts of southwest
KS as this shortwave trough approaches. Strong heating is occurring
in this region, with afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg and
minimal cap. Initial storms will likely be capable of very large
hail and isolated tornadoes, but it seems likely that rapid upscale
growth into a fast-moving squall line will occur. This will enhance
the risk of damaging winds as storms spread northeastward across
central/eastern KS and into parts of NE/IA/MO. If storm-scale
trends dictate, this area may be considered for an upgrade to MDT
risk in later updates.
...Western OK/TX Panhandle...
Low level moisture continues to stream rapidly northward into the TX
Panhandle and western OK, with dewpoints now in the mid 60s across
the region. Model forecast soundings by mid-late afternoon suggest
strong instability will be present with MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg
and 8 C/km lapse rates. Isolated and discrete convection is
expected to form along the dryline in the TX Panhandle and track
northeastward through the mid-evening. A pocket of strong low-level
shear is forecast to develop in this region, resulting in favorable
hodograph structures for supercells capable of very large hail and
strong tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded this area to MDT risk.
Later this evening, thunderstorms will likely develop southward
along the dryline/cold front across parts of west TX. Large hail
and damaging winds are expected with these storms. However, this
activity is not expected to develop until well after dark when the
capping inversion will be strengthening. This may tend to somewhat
limit the coverage of severe storms. The line of storms will spread
eastward and into west-central TX overnight.
A shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track eastward and
help to maintain scattered thunderstorms over parts of the western
Great Lakes region. Breaks in the clouds will help to destabilize
this area, and may lead to a few strong/severe storms later this
afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient
vertical shear and CAPE to pose a risk of hail and damaging winds in
the strongest cells. An isolated tornado is also possible.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z