May 29, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 29 15:52:17 UTC 2017 (20170529 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170529 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170529 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 84,178 18,010,717 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...
MARGINAL 140,727 13,906,805 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Birmingham, AL...Chesapeake, VA...Montgomery, AL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170529 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170529 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 84,588 18,063,635 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...
5 % 141,931 14,046,502 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Birmingham, AL...Chesapeake, VA...Montgomery, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170529 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 59,101 15,909,046 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...
5 % 166,261 16,105,285 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Birmingham, AL...Chesapeake, VA...Montgomery, AL...
   SPC AC 291552

   Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1052 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

   Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN GA
   INTO THE CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LA ACROSS
   THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS...

   CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER GRID IN WA

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
   evening from Louisiana to the Carolinas, with the greatest potential
   from northern Georgia eastward.  The primary threat will be damaging
   winds, with a few instances of large hail possible as well.

   ...Southeast States...
   Morning water vapor loop shows cyclonic flow aloft over much of the
   eastern United States, with a weak shortwave trough rotating across
   the TN Valley.  Ahead of this trough, clear skies and strong heating
   are occurring over much of northern GA and the Carolinas.  By
   mid/late afternoon, this region will see very steep low-level lapse
   rates and moderate CAPE values over 2000 J/kg.  Present indications
   are that thunderstorms will initiate over the higher terrain of
   northern GA and western SC/NC, and spread eastward across the hot
   and unstable corridor.  Forecast soundings indicate rather strong
   westerly flow aloft, along with sufficient deep layer vertical shear
   to promote some convective organization.  CAM solutions suggest the
   potential for bowing segments capable of gusty/damaging winds along
   with some hail.  This threat should spread into eastern SC/NC after
   dark with a slowly weakening severe threat due to the loss of
   daytime heating.

   ..Hart.. 05/29/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z