Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Baltimore, MD...Kansas City, MO...Raleigh, NC...Buffalo, NY...Norfolk, VA...
SPC AC 301545
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
VT/NY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NY INTO THE CAROLINAS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
Severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado, will be possible this afternoon and evening from
the lower Great Lakes and Adirondacks to North Carolina. Elsewhere,
a few strong/severe storms may occur across the central
Plains/Ozarks, central Gulf Coast, and Pacific Northwest.
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast in this
area. Visible satellite imagery shows a corridor of daytime heating
occurring from central NY into western PA, then southward into
western MD and northern VA. 12z model guidance remains consistent
that scattered thunderstorms will form in this region, aided by an
approaching shortwave trough now over MI/IN/OH. Afternoon CAPE
values of 1000-2000 J/kg and rather strong west-southwesterly mid
level winds will promote rather fast-moving thunderstorms capable of
damaging winds and some hail. The eastern extent of the severe
threat should be strongly limited by the cool/stable environment
over eastern NY/PA/MD/VA.
Radar loops have shown several rotating storms off and just along
the coast of central/southeast LA. This activity may persist for
several more hours, posing a risk of a brief tornado or damaging
...Southern MO/Northern AR...
A remnant area of weak convection is tracking across southeast KS.
Model solutions suggest some intensification may occur with this
activity by mid/late afternoon, with a risk of an isolated severe
cell or two. Gusty/damaging winds and hail would be the main
...Eastern KS/Northern MO...
A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across IA/NE. This
boundary may be a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Relatively steep low level lapse rates and
sufficient vertical shear indicate a risk of an isolated severe
storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail.
A well-defined shortwave trough is approaching the Pacific Northwest
coast. Strong heating is forecast over parts of central WA/OR, with
afternoon temperatures warming through the 80s and into the 90s.
Steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient southwesterly
flow aloft suggest a risk of high-based showers and thunderstorms
capable of gusty and locally damaging wind gusts.
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