Jun 5, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 5 16:30:59 UTC 2017 (20170605 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170605 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170605 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 35,762 5,777,901 Raleigh, NC...Corpus Christi, TX...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Brownsville, TX...
MARGINAL 468,729 48,375,387 San Antonio, TX...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Virginia Beach, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170605 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 69,788 14,899,455 Virginia Beach, VA...Miami, FL...Raleigh, NC...Corpus Christi, TX...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170605 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 36,114 5,841,772 Raleigh, NC...Corpus Christi, TX...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Brownsville, TX...
5 % 469,751 48,773,865 San Antonio, TX...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Virginia Beach, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170605 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 10,497 1,617,332 Corpus Christi, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Pharr, TX...Edinburg, TX...
5 % 384,702 36,968,428 San Antonio, TX...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Virginia Beach, VA...
   SPC AC 051630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017

   Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
   TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NC/FAR
   SOUTHEAST VA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
   TX...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY/NORTHEAST TO CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
   FL...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
   south Texas, the High Plains into central Wyoming, the middle Ohio
   Valley to eastern New York, and the Carolinas and vicinity mainly
   this afternoon and evening.

   ...South Texas...
   Clusters of showers and thunderstorms continue to move offshore of
   the middle to upper TX Coastal Plain, in general association with an
   eastward moving vort max over south TX. Residual outflow and
   heating/destabilization during the afternoon may allow for renewed
   deep convective development later today on a relatively isolated
   basis. Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow aligned along the Rio
   Grande Valley, and moderate to strong instability, would support a
   risk for damaging winds and large hail with any stronger/possibly
   rotating storms that develop. The primary risk should be this
   afternoon and evening, although a few cells could linger/redevelop
   overnight as a weaker vorticity maxima continue to track across the
   area embedded within broader cyclonic flow aloft.

   ...Carolinas/far southern Virginia...
   Widespread showers and a few/embedded thunderstorms continue to
   occur at midday across Virginia and areas west/southwestward across
   the mountains. As the air mass near and south of the ongoing
   clouds/precipitation heats and destabilizes this afternoon, an
   increase in thunderstorms is expected. With increasing
   west-southwest flow aloft, a few stronger/organized updrafts will
   likely emerge, especially across parts of NC/far southeast VA where
   a somewhat greater combination of buoyancy and deep-layer/low-level
   shear are expected. The strongest storms will be capable of
   producing damaging winds and/or hail. The severe risk will continue
   through the late afternoon and into the early evening hours, before
   diurnally diminishing.

   ...High Plains...
   As weak short-wave troughing aloft shifts east across the
   larger-scale ridge over the Rockies today, a combination of heating
   over the higher terrain and ascent focused near a lee trough will
   support afternoon and evening storm development, as 500 to 1000 J/kg
   mixed-layer CAPE develops. Though mid-level westerly flow across the
   region will remain relatively weak, low-level
   southerly/southeasterly winds may provide ample shear to support
   evolution of a few stronger storms. Consistent with latest
   observations and a somewhat stronger belt of mid-level winds, latest
   convection-allowing guidance suggest that the strongest/most
   organized storms should occur across parts of WY late this afternoon
   into evening.

   Convection will spread slowly eastward with time, possibly
   congealing into one or more small-scale, semi-organized clusters
   during the late afternoon and evening before weakening overnight.
   Isolated hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main severe
   risk across the region.

   ...Parts of NY and PA west across the upper and mid OH Valley...
   Cloud cover remains prevalent across the region at midday,
   especially to the north of a substantial band of widespread
   convection from the mid-Atlantic region to the TN Valley. While
   cloud cover will temper the overall degree of destabilization,
   modest buoyancy should diurnally increase near/ahead of a cold
   front, which likely support the redevelopment and intensification of
   thunderstorms from portions of NY and PA westward across the Ohio
   Valley region. Modest CAPE but ample shear will be sufficient for a
   few organized storms and clusters capable of producing locally
   damaging winds and/or hail into the early evening hours. For
   additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 949.

   ...South Florida...
   While cloud cover/convection persists at midday, modestly enhanced
   west-southwest flow aloft will continue to overspread south Florida
   today, as a complex upper disturbance moves steadily
   east-northeastward with time. Increasing ascent combined with some
   additional heating should support a diurnal increase in
   thunderstorms, although the aforementioned cloud cover should limit
   appreciable CAPE development in many areas despite a tropical
   boundary layer. A few stronger storms capable of locally damaging
   winds or even a brief tornado still appear possible this afternoon
   and evening, and perhaps even into the overnight hours as multiple
   disturbances within the larger-scale upper system rotate across the
   region.

   ...Gulf Coast from Louisiana to north Florida...
   In association with the slow-moving upper low along the western Gulf
   Coast, most of the stronger and most organized storms are expected
   to remain offshore over the open Gulf of Mexico waters through
   tonight. However, a few stronger storms may at least graze coastal
   LA today, while low/mid-level winds may otherwise gradually
   strengthen toward coastal AL/north FL through tonight while storm
   coverage gradually increases. While the potential for organized
   severe storms currently appears low, observational/guidance trends
   will be reevaluated throughout the day.

   ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/05/2017

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