Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...
Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Oklahoma City, OK...Cleveland, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Madison, WI...
Indianapolis, IN...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...
SPC AC 141623
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND
Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Great Lakes
southward to the mid Mississippi Valley. The primary threats with
these storms will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Elsewhere,
isolated strong/severe storms will be possible across the southern
Plains, Ohio Valley, and the Carolinas.
...Great Lakes to Mid MS Valley...
Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low lifting northeastward
into ND, with broad cyclonic flow aloft across the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest. The primary forcing mechanism for convective
development later today appears to be a weak convectively-aided
mid-level shortwave trough moving across IA/MO. Relatively strong
heating is occurring ahead of this trough across the SLGT risk area,
where dewpoints in the 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
2000-2500 J/kg. However, vertical shear and mid-level lapse rates
are not particularly strong. This limits the predictability of
convective evolution and of the overall severe threat. Present
indications are that multiple clusters of strong/severe storms will
intensify over IA/MO/WI this afternoon and spread eastward into
IL/IN/MI. The strongest cells will pose a risk of hail, and upscale
organization into bowing structures capable of winds is expected.
Strong heating along the dryline will result in high CAPE values and
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of west TX into
southwest OK. Parameters are somewhat weaker than yesterday, but
remain favorable for a few supercells capable of large hail and
damaging winds. The primary threat should diminish by 03z.
...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas...
A widespread moist and moderately unstable air mass will result in
scattered strong thunderstorms today over a rather large area.
These slow-moving storms will pose a localized risk of gusty winds
or perhaps hail, but are expected to remain mostly disorganized.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z