Jun 14, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 14 16:23:38 UTC 2017 (20170614 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170614 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170614 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 318,399 35,434,586 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...
MARGINAL 490,724 62,440,145 Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Oklahoma City, OK...Cleveland, OH...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170614 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 133,248 10,543,253 Madison, WI...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Naperville, IL...Cedar Rapids, IA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170614 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 281,935 34,954,184 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...
5 % 528,169 63,194,864 Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Oklahoma City, OK...Cleveland, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170614 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 23,645 408,076 Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Big Spring, TX...West Odessa, TX...Snyder, TX...
15 % 235,155 25,090,388 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Madison, WI...
5 % 305,180 25,402,372 Indianapolis, IN...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...
   SPC AC 141623

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN
   GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
   VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   WEST TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
   afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Great Lakes
   southward to the mid Mississippi Valley. The primary threats with
   these storms will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Elsewhere,
   isolated strong/severe storms will be possible across the southern
   Plains, Ohio Valley, and the Carolinas.

   ...Great Lakes to Mid MS Valley...
   Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low lifting northeastward
   into ND, with broad cyclonic flow aloft across the northern Plains
   and Upper Midwest.  The primary forcing mechanism for convective
   development later today appears to be a weak convectively-aided
   mid-level shortwave trough moving across IA/MO.  Relatively strong
   heating is occurring ahead of this trough across the SLGT risk area,
   where dewpoints in the 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
   2000-2500 J/kg.  However, vertical shear and mid-level lapse rates
   are not particularly strong.  This limits the predictability of
   convective evolution and of the overall severe threat.  Present
   indications are that multiple clusters of strong/severe storms will
   intensify over IA/MO/WI this afternoon and spread eastward into
   IL/IN/MI.  The strongest cells will pose a risk of hail, and upscale
   organization into bowing structures capable of winds is expected.

   ...West TX...
   Strong heating along the dryline will result in high CAPE values and
   scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of west TX into
   southwest OK.  Parameters are somewhat weaker than yesterday, but
   remain favorable for a few supercells capable of large hail and
   damaging winds.  The primary threat should diminish by 03z.

   ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas...
   A widespread moist and moderately unstable air mass will result in
   scattered strong thunderstorms today over a rather large area. 
   These slow-moving storms will pose a localized risk of gusty winds
   or perhaps hail, but are expected to remain mostly disorganized.

   ..Hart/Cohen.. 06/14/2017

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