Jun 16, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 16 16:30:11 UTC 2017 (20170616 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170616 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170616 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 56,207 3,804,612 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Kansas City, KS...
SLIGHT 163,256 8,483,160 Wichita, KS...Jackson, MS...Overland Park, KS...Cedar Rapids, IA...Olathe, KS...
MARGINAL 393,204 52,562,389 Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Milwaukee, WI...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170616 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 60,478 3,308,226 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Topeka, KS...Sioux City, IA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170616 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 55,684 3,863,339 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Kansas City, KS...
15 % 165,082 8,474,548 Wichita, KS...Jackson, MS...Overland Park, KS...Cedar Rapids, IA...Olathe, KS...
5 % 394,410 53,217,403 Jacksonville, FL...Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Milwaukee, WI...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170616 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 31,253 1,864,013 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
30 % 24,299 1,568,329 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...Fremont, NE...
15 % 107,730 5,844,447 Kansas City, MO...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...
5 % 179,802 11,317,895 Memphis, TN...Wichita, KS...Madison, WI...Jackson, MS...Sioux Falls, SD...
   SPC AC 161630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

   Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN IA...EASTERN NE...NORTHERN MO...AND NORTHEAST KS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with wind damage and hail are possible this
   afternoon and tonight across parts of the central Plains and middle
   Mississippi Valley, as well as over parts of the lower Mississippi
   Valley.  Marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts may
   also impact parts of the Gulf Coast and eastern U.S.

   ...Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
   Moderately fast zonal flow is present today over the northern half
   of the nation, with a few embedded and weak shortwave troughs moving
   across the Plains.  The air mass over the central Plains has been
   affected by widespread thunderstorms last night, but is recovering
   quickly as low level moisture recovery and strong heating
   destabilize the atmosphere.  Current indications are that
   thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon from western IA into
   eastern NE, with more isolated storms farther northeast into WI. 
   Sufficient vertical shear will support rotating storms capable of
   large hail and damaging winds.  One or more bowing structures is
   likely to emerge from these initial storms, spreading across the ENH
   region through the evening.  12z CAM solutions continue to add
   confidence to this scenario, with the potential for rather
   widespread wind damage.  The potential exists for this activity to
   persist overnight and surge southward across MO and possibly into
   northern AR by 17/12z with a continued threat of locally
   gusty/damaging winds.  

   ...Lower MS Valley...
   A strong, remnant MCV is tracking southeastward across AR.  Local
   VAD profiles show evidence of this circulation, with the SRX VAD
   indicating 40kt winds around 4km.  These wind fields and associated
   lift will spread into MS this afternoon, where full sunshine and
   ample low level moisture will yield strong instability.  Present
   indications are that scattered thunderstorms will form throughout
   the SLGT risk area, posing a risk of damaging winds and some hail. 
   Storms may congeal into a more organized line as they spread
   southward.

   ..Hart/Cohen.. 06/16/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z