Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
26,978
268,046
Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...Great Bend, KS...
5 %
325,583
15,795,983
Tucson, AZ...Albuquerque, NM...New Orleans, LA...Salt Lake City, UT...Aurora, IL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
26,913
263,629
Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...Great Bend, KS...
SPC AC 201624
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LA/MS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
IL/IN...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over
parts of the central High Plains. A few tornadoes may occur this
afternoon through tonight over the central Gulf Coast. Isolated
severe storms also are possible over parts of Illinois and the mid
Mississippi Valley, as well as from the northern Rockies and High
Plains into South Dakota.
...KS...
Southwesterly low-level winds are helping to transport rich low
level moisture back into KS today, with dewpoints rising through the
60s. By mid/late afternoon, strong CAPE values are forecast to
develop, leading to the development of scattered thunderstorms.
Favorably strong northwesterly flow aloft will promote supercell
structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The
primary severe risk should remain well-focused in west-central and
western KS as the low-level jet strengthens this evening.
...LA/MS Coast...
PTC #3 continues to slowly organize in the central Gulf of Mexico.
as the circulation drifts northwestward, and low-level winds
strengthen in the northeast quadrant of the circulation, the
potential for a few rotating cells and isolated tornadoes will
increase. Current indications are the best chance of tornadoes will
be this evening across parts of southern LA and the immediate MS
coast.
...IL/IN...
Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving upper trough tracking
southeastward across MN/WI. This feature will promote scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon over parts of northern and
central IL. Storms will also eventually spread into parts of IN.
Vertical shear profiles are quite favorable for severe storms.
However, forecast soundings show that unstable layer will be
relatively shallow due to a large mid/upper level inversion across
the region. The stronger cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and
hail, but the complex thermodynamic structure limits confidence in a
greater severe threat.
...MT/WY/SD...
A few thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of
southwest and southern MT today, and spread east-southeastward into
parts of northern WY and eventually into western SD. The strongest
of these storms may produce hail and gusty winds.
...Eastern ID/Western WY into Northern UT...
Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop
over parts of eastern ID and northwest UT this afternoon, spreading
eastward across the MRGL risk area. Forecast soundings suggest the
potential for strong downdrafts in the more robust cells.
..Hart/Gleason.. 06/20/2017
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