Jun 24, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 24 16:30:58 UTC 2017 (20170624 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170624 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170624 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 169,201 15,639,181 Charlotte, NC...El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170624 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170624 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 151,869 15,748,595 Charlotte, NC...El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170624 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 71,575 2,246,274 El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Las Cruces, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...
   SPC AC 241630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

   Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
   MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHERN CO...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
   MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be
   possible over portions of the Southeast and possibly the Upper
   Midwest this afternoon. Other storms capable of isolated severe hail
   and strong winds are expected over parts of New Mexico.

   ...Carolinas/Southeast States...
   Ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, a moist warm sector with
   low 70s F dewpoints resides across the region. The atmosphere will
   become moderately unstable especially over the Carolinas with 1500
   J/kg MLCAPE as the boundary layer warms. Storms are expected to
   redevelop along the front and over the higher terrain and intensify
   as they intercept the moist and unstable warm sector. On the
   southern fringe of moderate winds aloft, 30-35 kt effective shear
   will support multicells and weak mid-level updraft rotation. These
   storms may produce a few instances of strong to damaging wind gusts
   as they develop eastward through the Carolinas this afternoon into
   early evening.

   ...New Mexico/far southern Colorado...
   Widespread low clouds may largely persist across eastern
   NM/southeast CO today. However, diabatic warming over the higher
   terrain with steep lapse rates will likely foster modest MLCAPE and
   the development of storms during the afternoon especially across
   interior NM. Wind profiles are sufficient for some mid-level updraft
   rotation with storms developing over northern NM and possibly far
   southern CO. Otherwise, multicells with isolated downburst winds and
   hail are expected from later this afternoon into early evening.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   While boundary-layer moisture will be quite meager ahead of a
   southeastward-moving cold front, low-level moisture (40s F surface
   dewpoints) may be sufficient for some low-topped thunderstorms near
   the front. Steep lapse rates and relatively strong low/mid-level
   westerly winds may be sufficient for some convectively enhanced wind
   gusts this afternoon through around sunset.

   ...South-central Texas...
   Thunderstorms will persist/redevelop today largely along
   consolidated outflow and zones of differential heating under the
   influence of weak forcing and weak winds aloft. While a few
   pulse-type storms capable of strong downdraft winds may occur this
   afternoon/early evening with a moist/unstable environment, the
   overall severe potential is expected to remain limited.

   ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/24/2017

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